The Week Ahead

US Futures will open later this afternoon with many anxious eyes watching how traders will weigh the risks after Friday's Syria news. Bulls will focus on the limited and likely end to any further military action and bears will be concerned for some fallout from Russia who has stated there will be "consequences." The military action wasn't expected and by that I mean there wasn't any risk off on Friday with some imminent military action so if there is a relief bounce I would not doubt it is limited in size.

Q1 earnings started last week highlighted with a few of the large money center banks. Headlines at first blush were good however, I spoke with a sharp financials focused hedge fund trader who explained the sell off as "Loan growth still muted and deposits are not growing loans, deposit betas ticking up, especially in high net worth and wealth management. Expenses were mixed and if they can't control expenses when funding costs are going up so why would you own them?" Monday will have BAC, Tuesday GS, Wednesday MS and USB as the next tells.

With earnings season will be fully underway there will be, as mentioned, heavily weighted toward banks / financial institutions earnings but the industrial sector will also be well represented. Notable reporters include but are not limited to: BAC, JBHT, NFLX, GS, JNJ, UNH, IBM, TXT BXS, USB, KEY, GWW, ETFC, GE, HON KSU, and SLB. NFLX reports after the bell on Monday and it's been notable the analyst upgrades and estimate increases shortly ahead of the release. On the economic calendar US retail sales will get the week started on Monday, with China's Q1 GDP and March data out late Monday / Tuesday morning. We will see Euro-zone ZEW on Tuesday and US housing starts / building permits as well. The week tapers off in the back half with the Philly Fed survey on Thursday.

Sentiment ended the week with the S&P bulls at 32% within a range of 23% to 37%. Volume was notably light over the week with traders sitting on their hands. This can be attributed to the three risks I identified: Syria, China, and Mueller. Overnight headline risk remains high and thus buyers will stay higher and sellers lower.

Monday 16-Apr

Corporate

Pre-open: BAC, JBHT, MTB,
Post-close: CE, LRCX, NFLX, WTFC

Analyst Meeting: CRM
PDUFA: BMY (Opdivo)

Economic

US: Empires State survey (Apr), Retail Sales (Mar), NAHB housing index (Apr), Business Inventories (Feb), Fed Speakers Bostic

Tuesday 17-Apr

Corporate

Pre-open: CMA, GS, JNJ, NTRS, OMC, UNH
Post-close: ADTN, CSX, FULT, IBM, ISRG

Analyst Meeting: FDS, NTRS, PTCT
PDUFA: RARE (Crysvita), RIGL (Tavalisse)

Economic

US: Housing Starts (Mar), Building Permits (Mar), Industrial Production (Mar), Fed speakers Williams, Quarles, Harker, Evans, Bostic
Europe: Euro-Zone: ZEW survey (Apr); Germany: ZEW survey (Apr); UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Feb)
Asia Mon PM/ Tues AM: China GDP Q1, New loans (Mar), Industrial production (Mar) Fixed Asset Investment (Mar); Japan Industrial Production (Feb), Shipments (Feb)

Wednesday 18-Apr

Corporate

Pre-open: ABT, FRED, MS, TXT, USB
Post-close: AXP, BPFH, BXS, CCI, CCK, CP.CN, PIR, PTC, SNBR, UMPQ, URI

J.P. Morgan Public Finance Transportation and Utility forum

Analyst Meeting: FAST, UMPQ
IPO: EAF, SURF, VRIO

Economic

Europe: Euro-Zone: HICP (Mar), CPI (Mar), Construction output (Feb), Auto registrations (Mar); UK: CPI (Mar), PPI, (Mar), Retail price (Mar)
Asia Tues PM / Wed AM Mon: Japan: Import / Export (Mar) Trade Balance (Mar)

Thursday 19-Apr

Corporate

Pre-open: ADS, BBT, BK, DGX, DHR, EWBC, GPC, GWW, KEY, MDSO, PBCT, PM, PNR, PPG, SNA, TTS, VMI, WBS
Post-close: ASB, DTEA, ETFC, RCI.B.CN, TEAM, WAL, WERN

J.P. Morgan Public Finance Transportation and Utility Investor
CIBC Real Estate

Analyst Meeting: PIR, SWK, RVNC, ECOM, HOMB
IPO: FCI, LEVL, PVTL

Economic

US: Philly Fed survey (Apr), Leading Index (MAR), Fed Speakers Quarles
Europe: UK: Retail Sales (Mar)

Friday 20-Apr

Corporate

Pre-open: BHGE, CFG, GE, HON, KSU, MAN, PG, RF, ROP, SHOO, SLB, STI, STT, SWK, SYF, TRU

Analyst Meeting: SCHW

Economic

US: Fed Speakers Evans
Europe: Euro-zone: Consumer Confidence (Apr); Germany: PPI (Mar)
Asia Thurs PM / Fri AM; Japan CPI (Mar)

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