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04/25/2024
Thomas Thornton

The Ministries of Love, Peace, Plenty, and Truth

This weekend it was reported in the Guardian and the New York Times how "Trump consultants exploited the Facebook data of millions."  It sounds shocking and terrible yet similar to Orwell's Book "1984."  In the book the Ministry of Peace concerns itself with war, the Ministry of Truth with lies, the Ministry of Love with torture and the Ministry of Plenty with starvation. These contradictions are not accidental, nor do they result from ordinary hypocrisy: they are deliberate exercises in doublethink.  Edward Snowden tweeted out "Businesses that make money by collecting and selling detailed records of private lives were once plainly described as "surveillance companies."  Their rebranding as "social media" is the most successful deception since the Department of War became the Department of Defense."  He's got a point.

We all have a digital footprint from hitting likes, friending people, ordering goods to searching for things.  The "Trump consultants" did the same things as Obama's campaign did in 2008 and 2012.  From an MIT story in 2012 "After voters returned Obama to office for a second term, his campaign became celebrated for its use of technology-much of it developed by a unusual team of coders and engineers- that redefined how individuals could use the Web, social media, and smartphones to participate in the political process."  The ability to manipulate has moved from "celebrated" to now "exploited."   The backlash on Facebook and other tech/social media platforms has now begun. It matters to the market as Facebook has been the 4th largest attribute to the Nasdaq 100 since the February 2016 low.  It's market cap is over $500 billion and is the 4th largest weight in the S&P.  Who's going to turn off Facebook, Instagram, or Whatsapp?  Is this going to change behavior or will we all end up like Winston the main character in 1984 just giving in to Big Brother?  

Sorry if I got a little deep today, however the news is timely and relevant as technology being the only sector up for the year is at risk with stories like this and others such as backlash over iPhone addiction, EU imposing taxes on big tech, or potential anti trust actions.  

Keep an eye on support levels taken from the 2/9 lows on SPY 271.72, QQQ 166.55, IWM 153.05.  The DIA Dow VWAP is at 249.60 which has been broken to the downside.  Be careful in this market as I do believe there is still downside ahead... perhaps significant.  

Notable:

  • US Markets - Sentiment has a lot of downside runway if this continues lower before it's oversold again
  • European Markets - Just continued sideways action in the DAX and new low in the UK FTSE 100
  • Asian Markets - Nikkei is near support, India new recent low, Hang Seng and Kospi holding up OK
  • Bitcoin Update - Downside green Setup 9 should see a bounce here off TDST support too
  • XLK Tech ETF and FB - FB will be the poster boy for tech and social media backlash - avoid
  • Bonds - Still no turn up
  • DeMark Screens - Weekly updated today

US Markets


SPX bullish sentiment is at 59% and likely will be close or under 50% on today's reading.  Tomorrow's market action will be important to see if they break the dip buyers

 


SPX daily has broken both the 50 day (blue) and 20 day (red) moving averages and is on day 9 of 13 with a downside Countdown.  2700 then 2673 will be watched as support.  Breaking 2673 and "retest" talk will get loud.  

 


Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 60%.  This should definitely break 50% with the large move today

 


Nasdaq 100 gapped down today and is at the 20 day moving average and still 1.6% above the 50 day which will be watched as support again

 


IWM Russell 2000 stalled exactly at 159.86 TDST red dotted line (this is drawn from the first downside green 1 as a measure of a true high).  It's still 1% above the 20 and 50 day moving averages.  IWM is on day 6 of 13 with its downside Countdown.  

 
European Markets


German DAX is down hard today and continues sideways in a sloppy way.  There is an upside Countdown on day 7 of 13 however this just can't get me comfy recommending a comfortable long idea.  If you're long  use a 12,075 stop.  

 


UK FTSE 100 is on day 11 of 13 with its downside Countdown.  It is also making a new recent low.   A long trade is ahead but be patient



 
Asian Markets


Japan Nikkei is on day 11 of 13 with its downside Countdown.  21,00 is important support.  

 


Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is holding up ok at the 50 day however there remains a downside Countdown on day 4 of 13.  

 


India's Nifty 50 hit a new low today and is on day 11 of 13 with its Countdown.

 


Korean Kospi stalled at the 50 day and is trading below 4 previous days (the green 1).  

 
Bitcoin Update


Bitcoin lost the upside red Countdown that was stuck at 4/13 because the green Setup 9 was fulfilled (9 consecutive closes below 4 previous closes).   Green 9's can determine a range and an upside move ahead wouldn't surprise however I would bet there will be a lower high again.  The 7752 TDST green dotted line worked pretty well like the other one near 6000 as support.  

 
XLK Technology ETF and Facebook


XLK Tech ETF stalled after making a new high (the only major sector ETF to do so)   It's right at the 20 day and is 1.87% above the 50 day.  If the 50 day breaks (67.50) then the late February low at 66 comes into play.  Under that level and it's likely a free fall to the lows.  

 


Facebook has not been a performer like other tech stocks in 2018.  It's the first time in a long while that the 4th largest weight in the SPX and NDX hasn't been in the top 10 for attribution.  There is a downside wave 3 price objective at 158.28.  This stock could be the poster child for social media and tech backlash.  

 
Bonds


Bond bullish sentiment is at 35% and just stuck here for the past 3 days

 


TLT bond ETF has tried like the 10 year futures to show some strength but just can't get going.  There is a downside red Countdown on day 9 of 13 that would need a close under 118 (the 8th red bar) to fully exhaust with the 13.  

 
DEMARK SCREENS - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals

Daily/Weekly DeMark upside/downside exhaustion signals (Sequential) Weekly updated on Monday's.  Price flips occur when a stock closes higher/lower than four previous closes.    

S&P 1500 Universe: 

DAILY UPSIDE 13:   AVP, AXE, INDB
DAILY DOWNSIDE 13:  FMC, SKT, SM, TEX, TYPE

DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN:    ACN, BOFI, HRS, LOGM, THC, TWX
DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP:   HVT, PCTI, TSCO

Updated: 3/19/18
WEEKLY UPSIDE 13:   ASGN, DIOD, DSPG, ETFC, EZPW, GDOT, HAE, ICUI, IGT, INTU, JBL, LDOS, LGND, MTRN, ODFL, RHI, SCI, THG, TILE
WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13:   NONE

Updated: 3/1/1
MONTHLY UPSIDE 13:     BDX, BMY, CAT, COL, CW, EBIX, GNCMA, IRBT, MMSI, NFLX
MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13:    CHK, SVU, WIN

Euro Stoxx 600 Universe: 

DAILY UPSIDE 13:   NONE
DAILY DOWNSIDE 13: ENG SM, OSR GR, PNN LN

DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN:    ADP FP, ENX FP, JYSK DC
DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP:   INCH LN

Updated: 3/19/18
WEEKLY UPSIDE 13:    AALB NA, AGS BB, AKZA NA, GFTU LN, WDH DC
WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13:   ISAT LN

Updated: 3/1/18
MONTHLY UPSIDE 13:    ASML NA, ENX FP, FI/N SW, INVP LN, SAB SM, SCR FP, US IM
MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13:   NONE


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