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Today in America, starts the "March Madness" College Basketball tournament and if you are wondering why the volume in the US markets dropped in the afternoon today and tomorrow has gone, traders are glued to TV's watching the many exciting games.  Speaking of volume, overall market volume has reverted back to the low volume average of 2017 (6.6B shares) after a very busy February when the average was 8.3B.  March has been a pretty maddening month so far for both bulls and bears.  For bulls, it's been wonderful if you've been in tech and specifically the FANG stocks but difficult when that's the only sectors of 11 S&P sectors to make a new high.  For bears it's been difficult getting follow through on the downside on some sectors and seeing lower highs on many sectors and indexes is frustrating.  Globally, the Bloomberg World Index remains well off the highs and the Emerging Markets also is off the highs.  Bond traders have seen exceptionally narrow price action and crude traders have seen a series of lower highs but no break of 60.  Gold longs hoping for that breakout are now hoping for it not to break 1300.  Bitcoin longs have seen a drop of 31% from the March 5th high but Bitcoin traders are now used to large monthly draw downs (Dec 44%, Jan 45%, Feb 42%). Perhaps the least volatile has been the USD which typically dictates a lot of direction in everything.  

Geopolitical March Madness has been quite active with some high level abrupt turnover at the White House, trade tariffs being introduced, watered down, and then upped with China.  In Canada, the overheated housing market bubble continues to deflate with Vancouver house sales reported down 15.8% and Toronto down 8.2% in February.  In the UK, Russians used a nerve gas to kill an ex Russian spy causing many countries to condemn Russia.  (The US threw down some tough sanctions on some Russian individuals - including Putin's chef). 

Sentiment in March has also very exciting with S&P bullish sentiment moving from a March low of 25% to 71% within 7 days and back down 19 points to 52%.  And just to think, we have the second half of March ahead of us!  Can the second half top the first half?

Notable:

• US Markets - Some indexes at defined support levels yet sentiment has been dropping again
  
• European Markets - DAX isn't doing that well as the best index in Europe, Euro Banks at an 11 month low today
  
• USD, Euro, Libor - Could there be a dollar squeeze?
  
• Cryptocurrency Carnage - People have been buried and naturally bought at the exact wrong time
  
• Smart Money Flow Index - Back at February lows and that's bearish
  
• Gold - Still looks weak
  
• FANG + Index - Upside wave 5 price objective met with green Setup 9 today
  
• Copper - Still looks weak
  
• Bonds - Sentiment starting to improve and a bond bounce could be starting
  
• DeMark Screens
  

SPX bullish sentiment dropped to 52% from 61%.  

SPX daily is holding the 50 day moving average and now is on the 8th of 13 days with its Countdown.  

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 62%

QQQ has bounced off the 171 level again but did get a price flip down (green 1) which means it's trading lower than 4 previous closes.  Tomorrow will likely be the 2nd green number as several of the recent closes have been higher.  171 is the level I'm watching

IWM Russell 2000 is trading down today and below 4 previous closes thus the green Setup count that was on day 8/9 was lost.  

The German DAX is the only European index with an upside Countdown but I have to admit it's doing a poor job.  With so many other indexes weak in Europe, it's hard to buy anything even with a Countdown on the upside.  

European Bank Index has been a frequent topic on the daily note as I've highlighted how poor banks have traded.  It's now on day 8 of 13 with a downside Countdown.  Ray Dalio and Bwater are short a lot of Italian banks and this chart certainly is evidence that his trade will continue to work.

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 41%

DXY US Dollar Index has faded at the down sloping 50 day moving average and if this is going to work getting above 91 pronto is needed.  Two upside targets - 91.86 the upside wave 3 price objective and 94.05 the upside Trend Factor retracement

The Euro has made a series of lower highs but has held the 1.22 level twice.  

This overlay with the DXY US Dollar Index and Libor OIS Spread is quite something.  Could there be a dollar shortage squeeze soon?  

Front month Libor spreads are blowing out to levels where they were contained in 2010, 2011, and 2016.  I'm watching this very closely as are many others.  

This is pretty stunning for what they went up in 2017 and what they have lost so far in 2018.  The fact is that the majority of new investors in cryptocurrencies got involved very late in the run and likely are down significantly.  

The Smart Money Flow Index is nearly making new lows under February.  The Smart Money Flow Index is calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart money waits until the end and they very often test the market before by shorting heavily just to see how the market reacts. Then they move in the big way. These heavy hitters also have the best possible information available to them and they do have the edge on all the other market participants.  

Gold bullish sentiment is at 66% unchanged

Gold futures continues to look lower

FANG + has a green Setup 9 today and also achieved the upside 5th wave price objective.  This should back off starting in the coming days

Copper bullish sentiment is at 39% and remains under pressure

Copper has support at 305 then 297.90

Bond bullish sentiment has increased to 36% the highest since 1/17.  I do believe there is a bond bounce starting.  

TLT Bond ETF is starting to move up but has a down sloping 50 day as resistance.  

2/10 Yield Spread continues to flatten and will get people talking about it being a recession indicator.  

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