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Hedge Fund Telemetry is a politically free zone.  I have my own opinions on things and if you want a political opinion, there are plenty of people out there who will take up a lot of your time giving their opinion to you.  I make exceptions when politics intersects with the markets.  Gary Cohn leaving is a big deal.  He is street savvy, global market friendly, and likely the one who was the grown up in the room at the White House when it came to economic policy.   The breaking point was the tariff announcement last week that he opposed.  There were numerous reports of him reaching out to business leaders to help him walk back the tariff talk.  Yesterday afternoon the US announced broad curbs on Chinese imports and takeovers.  Perhaps Cohn knew that was coming and pulled the ripcord?    President Trump is known to be quite impulsive and shoots from the hip (or Tweets from the can) and playing around with trade policies without a well thought out and vetted plan will have repercussions. The response from other countries is yet to come.  This is a bull in a china shop situation.  Not what the markets need or want.  

The futures markets took the news last night bad and by the time the markets opened today, the losses were cut in half and the buy the dip people came in on queue and took the indexes nearly back to unchanged but they couldn't keep it going.  I have discussed frequently how the BTD people have to suffer losses enough to pause the next time they see a dip as well a learned behavior is that their trigger fingers get quicker whenever they start losing.  I still believe lower lows are ahead for the equity markets.

Notable:

• US Markets - Choppy weak action dominated here with long and short traders
  
• European Markets - Starting to look at some potentially constructive signs on a few indexes
  
• A few internals in the US - This bounce hasn't produced any strong momentum or new highs
  
• Asian Indexes - Still look lower
  
• Crude and Natural Gas - I like Crude short and Natural Gas long
  
• Paul Tudor Jones - The Battle of the Little Bighorn
  
• DeMark Screens
  

SPX bullish sentiment is at 43% and still couldn't get above 50%

SPX daily still has the downside wave pattern with downside wave 3 price objective near 2400.  A break of the closing low on Thursday 2/8 would lock in wave 3.  Breaking 2650 the recent low also would bring out a lot of sellers

OEX S&P 100 also looks weak

The shorter term OEX 30 min charts is wave perfection with the recent upward 3rd wave target at 1215 nailed and the upside wave 5 at 1245 nearly hit.  Now there is a downside wave 3 target at 1135 but we need the recent low to break

IWM Russell 2000 has been very strong relative to the SPX but still has an upside downside Countdown on day 4 of 13.  I'm going to monitor this closely in the coming days

IWM with the wave pattern looks similar to many others with a lower high bounce from the February lows.  The wave pattern would revert back to wave 5 on the upside if a new high is made.  Again I'll be watching this close

European indexes have been terrible and I've written for several quarters how things didn't quite look so bullish like the US or Asian markets.  I am starting to believe some European indexes are getting a little more constructive on the long side.  I will be watching some of the indexes as some look more washed out than others.  I'm not making a call to buy but just letting you know there are things that are happening here like SX5E Euro Stoxx 50 registering the 5th down wave but hasn't turned up enough yet.  And it could slip right down again.  

German Dax reached the green TDST trend line at 12075 and bounced and has an upside red Countdown on day 3 of 13.  This is the only European index with an upside Countdown.  If you're contemplating a long use 12075 as a tight stop.  

Oh and there's Libor OIS spread ripping... This is on the verge of breaking out.  

SPX high low data hasn't really turned up despite the large move off the lows.  Tech still has the best readings but even still it's not that great.  

Nasdaq Summation Index (a measure of breadth and volume) has bounced off a very shallow oversold reading and the bounce is very very tepid unlike some of the surge we've seen in the past.  And it didn't get oversold with the momentum indicators too

Hong Kong Hang Seng looks weak and has a downside red Countdown on day 4 of 13.  

Hang Seng with downside wave 3 price objective of 27,176.  Ouch

Shanghai Composite continues to make lower highs and remains on day 5 of 13 with a red Countdown on the downside

Nikkei has important support at 21,000.  If this can't hold, I promise we will all be hearing more about how Japan is blowing up

Korean Kospi has support at 2340 but also has a red Countdown on day 3 of 13

India's Nifty 50 Index has broken support and targets 9884 for wave 3

Australian ASX 200 is going sideways and has a mixed picture with the DeMark counts.  If the green Setup count can get to 9 then the red upside Countdown is null.   

Crude bullish sentiment is at 56% and I expect lower levels tomorrow

WTI crude still has a downside Countdown on day 5 of 13.

Crude has a downside wave 3 price objective at 54.68.  If this falls under 60 then the chances are very good for this to break further.  Watch high yield CDX as it would widen too

Natural Gas bullish sentiment is at 62% and continues to move higher

Natural Gas futures made a high low recently and now is above both the 20 and 50 day moving average.  I still like Natural Gas on the long side and would add to the position today.  

UNG is the ETF most people use to trade (key word - trade)  Natural Gas.  There is an upside red Countdown on day 3 of 13.  I would buy this using a 21.61 firm stop.

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