The Week Ahead

Next week will start off with some important political news from Europe with the Italian election results coming in early in the morning Monday and the news Germany's Angela Merkel solidified her coalition paving the way for her fourth term. The Italy vote could rattle some markets while the Merkel news is a countering stabilizing factor. Keep an eye on Libor this week too. This week will also have the Trump trade war fallout continue and comments from other countries could cause some volatility within some sectors. I expect some trade push back with some US tech companies notably semiconductors at risk.

Earnings will be very light with some retail names finishing up Q4.

There will be a handful of Brokerage conferences through out the week including but not limited to the Deutsche Bank Media, Telecom, Citi Global Property, Royal Bank of Canada Financial Institutions, and Raymond James Institutional Investor conference among others.

The Economic calendar will be busy with the calendar more back end weighted for the week. We will kick off the week with Euro-zone PMI and U.S. ISM and PMI on Monday and then On Wednesday we will see the most action with US trade balance, ADP employment data, Non-farm productivity numbers, Consumer credit as well as Euro-zone GDP for Q4, and Chinese FX reserves. Thursday morning China will release trade numbers, ECB policy decision, Germany factory orders, capped off on Friday with BoJ policy meeting U.S. Jobs reports, German Industrial production and trade balance and Chinese CPI/PPI.

Last week had a 5% range with the S&P and finished the week bouncing into the close. This short term bounce could continue especially considering Asia and Europe ending the week short term oversold on several markets and should bounce too. My view is unchanged with further weakness and volatility ahead in the coming weeks and months but a move, perhaps up to 2725 would be no surprise. Bullish sentiment is at 30%, while under the midpoint of 50% still is vulnerable to further downside shocks. As usual, I'll be all over it this week with the Daily Note. If you have any questions, comments, and chart requests, please email me. Have a great week.

Monday 05-Mar:

Corporate

Post-close: ASNA

Deutsche Bank Media, Telecom and Business Services
Raymond James Institutional Investors
Citi Global Property CEO

Analyst Meeting: TGT
PDUFA: BMY

Economic

US: Markit services PMI (Feb), Non-manufacturing ISM (Feb),
Europe: Euro-zone services PMI (Feb); retail sales (Jan), Germany Markit PMI (Feb), UK BRC retail sales (Feb)
Asia: China Caixin PMI (Feb)

Tuesday 06-Mar:

Corporate

Pre-open: AFI, CIEN, DCI, GMS, TGT
Post-close: ABM, ADSK, AVAV, BOJA, CVNA, FOGO, GWRE, ROST, URBN

Raymond James Institutional Investors
Deutsche Bank Media, Telecom and Business Services
Royal Bank of Canada Financial Institutions
Citi Global Property CEO
Canaccord Genuity Musculoskeletal

Analyst Meeting: PSTG, CVX, PBI, KEYS, LKSD, VMI, LRCX, SABR, MTDR, TGT, RWT

Economic

US: Factory orders (Jan), Durable Cap Goods (Jan), Fed speakers Dudley, Kaplan, Brainard
Europe: Germany Construction PMI

Wednesday 07-Mar:

Corporate

Pre-open: ANF, BF.B, DLTR, GOLF, PLCE
Post-close: COST, FMI, OKTA, REVG, THO

Citi Global Property CEO
UBS Global Consumer and Retail
Raymond James Institutional Investors
Deutsche Bank Media, Telecom and Business Services
BMO Capital Markets Canadian Wealth Management
CIBC Industrials
Royal Bank of Canada Financial Institutions

Analyst Meeting: XOM, HUBB,CERN, PH, XOM, AXP
IPO: BTAI

Economic

US: ADP jobs report (Feb), Nonfarm productivity (Q4), US trade balance (Jan), Unit Labor Costs (Q4), Consumer Credit Jan Fed speaker Dudley, Bostic
Europe: Euro-zone GDP Q4 final
Asia: China FX reserves (Feb),

Thursday 08-Mar:

Corporate

Pre-open: AEO, CBK, DFRG, FMSA, IGT, KR, MTN, NAV, PRTY, TECD
Post-close: AREX, CHUY, COO, FNSR, LOCO, MRVL, PAY, UNFI

UBS Global Consumer and Retail
J.P. Morgan Gaming Lodging Restaurant & Leisure Management Access

Analyst Meeting: BK, FFIV, AXTA, CBG, FLOW, USG

Economic

US: Jobless claims (Feb)
Europe: ECB policy decision, Germany factory orders (Jan)
Asia: Japan GDP (Q4 final), current account (Jan), Bank lending (Feb), China trade data (Feb)

Friday 09-Mar:

Corporate

J.P. Morgan Gaming Lodging Restaurant & Leisure Management

Analyst Meeting: CAPR

Economic

US: Jobs report (Feb), Wholesale trade sales (Jan), Fed speakers Evans
Europe: Germany imports / exports for (Jan), Industrial production
Asia: Japan BOJ rate decision; China CPI/PPI (Feb)

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