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Today's note is a brief as I've had a couple meetings earlier.  Yesterday's late down move in the last hour took the S&P well under the 50 day but it held the recent lows of 2700.  I've been showing the support levels I calculated the VWAP (volume weighted average price) from the exact lows from 2/9.  What this shows is where the majority of volume has traded with price on the bounce.  When the levels are broken to the downside the risk increases as people start to see losses and selling accelerates.  Currently the VWAP levels I'm watching are SPY 270.80 now below, QQQ 164.55 still above, IWM 151.30 now below, DIA 250.45 also below.  Today's action has been a tug of war at the support levels.  There has been a 30 point range on the S&P futures today.  The buy the dip people and short the rips people are fighting it out.  Ultimately, the winner is declared everyday at the close.  I also have been watching the Smart Money Index (a comparison between the first hour and last hour) that has been dropping and nearly has broken the recent lows seen at the lows in February.    

Notable:

• US Markets - Tug of war at support but my bias remains lower lows ahead
  
• Smart Money Flow Index
• A few global indexes worth watching
  
• USD and GBP look
  
• Gold Update - I think it's going lower
  
• UPS - New long idea
  
• Bond Conundrum
  
• DeMark Screens
  

SPX bullish sentiment is at 36% remaining under 50% puts pressure on market

SPX daily is on day 5 of 13 with a downside red Countdown.  Another level to watch is the 2673 dotted green line (TDST line)

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 40% and has made a big divergence with price.  (sentiment did not go up like the NDX)

QQQ now has a red Countdown on day 2 of 13.  Note, since the price is lower than 4 previous closes, the green Setup count on top that was on day 5/9 is now null.  

Yesterday's PPO monitor closed on the dead lows (red bold) for many ETF's and the number of ETF's back under the 10, 20, and 50 day moving average has notably increased.  

Here's today's PPO monitor taken when the market was a little higher.  

When this is going down, sellers dominate with late day selling.  Not bullish

German DAX trades poorly as does most of all the European indexes

Japan Nikkei Index bounced and gapped down yesterday.  

Nikkei with the Countdowns visible show this on day 6 of 13 with a downside Countdown in progress.

Bloomberg World Index also bounced off the green Setup 9 on the downside but has failed at the 50 day moving average.

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 57% and a new high for this run

DXY US Dollar Index is on day 8 of 9 with a green Setup.  It's backed off a bit intraday but still looks constructive.  If anything it could back off for a couple days and then start an red upside Countdown which would be bullish

British Pound bullish sentiment is at 58% and has backed off from the recent highs of 94%

The GBP daily had some upside exhaustion ahead of the recent top but now has made a series of lower highs and lower lows.  

Gold bullish sentiment is at 49% and feels at risk for going lower.

Gold futures broke the 50 day support and now is on day 5 of 13 with a downside red Countdown.  

GLD had a great buy situation in December with the downside red Countdown 13 combined with 13% bullish sentiment.  I sold my long position with the upside exhaustion red 13 and have been neutral since. I get a lot of questions on Gold and have a lot of people who want to see it break out.  I just do not see that happening in the near future.  

I've developed a relationship with my UPS delivery guy where we talk stocks.  He told me he wanted to buy Amazon in December which he did successfully (he'd know how they are doing with all the packages he sees) and he's complained for a month about his UPS stock.  The good news is there is a downside red Countdown 13 today with a green Setup on top of today's bar (a price flip)  I would be a buyer of UPS today using a stop 5% lower from entry.                                                      

Bond bullish sentiment is at 27% the highest since January 25th.  

I'm torn with my thinking about bonds since I showed the 10 year futures with a downside exhaustion in the last few days (suggesting bonds should rally) but TLT ETF has had a downside red Countdown on day 6 of 13.  The recent upside exhaustion 13 worked very well.  Currently there is also a green Setup on day 3 of 9 and if this can continue to rise and achieve the 9 consecutive higher closes above 4 previous closes the red Countdown with be nullified .  My momentum indicators in the middle are starting to perk up too.  

High Yield on the other hand looks weak and is on day 6 of 13 of it's downside Countdown

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