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2/27/19
Thomas Thornton

Just Charts Today

There's a lot going on today with Fed Chairman Powell, Michael Cohen, and Robert Lighthizer speaking in front of Congress.  President Trump is in Vietnam with Kim Jung Un and expectations for an agreement are low.  The equity markets around the world are soft and interestingly bond markets are also weak with some yield spikes.  

Going to keep it short with just charts today.  No change to risk bias.  

Housekeeping notes:  We continue to do updates to the site and templates for the daily notes.  It has taken longer than I expected so all notes will be on email form like this for the near future.  And I have hired my sister Kelley to handle client services.  She worked as a talent agent for super models her whole life so she can certainly handle you finance people.  

US Markets


SPX bullish sentiment is at  


SPX daily starting a little turn but no price flip down yet


S&P cumulative breadth has been strong and has a 9-13-9 pattern and has started to turn lower in the past week.  Just when the usual suspects start telling others how breadth is good... always at the top


Top 5 SPX weights custom index have been going nowhere for 3 weeks.   


SPX 60 minute tactical time frame with a new downside red Countdown


Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at


NDX Index slight turn down


NDX 60 minute tactical time frame below the trend line


Dow Jones Industrial Average no price flip yet


IWM Russell 2000 does have a price flip down.  (green 1 on bottom when there is a new 4 day closing low)

 
Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas


Trade Ideas Changes:  No changes.   I'm watching IBB as March seasonality is weak.  Airlines could be starting to roll now into very weak March seasonality.  YTD +6.36%

 
India vs Pakistan - Who you got?


A couple of nuclear weapon armed countries are getting into a skirmish.  Considering how markets have generally ignored some significant negative catalysts over the years I suppose nuclear war will be a buying opportunity too.   Actually I'm just kidding and hope this ends peacefully of course.    India's market has not really moved


Pakistan's market has dropped however

 
10 Year Bonds Around the World Rising


Italy with some downside Countdowns and decent upside move today


A big German 10 year yield spike today


UK also having a big spike today

 
PPO Monitor - Percentage Price Oscillator

The PPO Monitor is a proprietary monitor developed to force rank Indexes, Sectors, and Stocks.  It ranks top down by strongest to weakest by percentage above/below the 50 day moving average.  Shorter term signals can be seen when the 10 and 20 day moving averages turn up (green) or down (red) which often are followed by the 50 day moving average.  This is useful to watch for historically overbought/oversold percentage above/below the 50 day moving average.  It is non correlated with the DeMark Indicators however we have found upside/downside exhaustion signals often occur when something rises to the top or drifts to the bottom of the monitor - increasing the timing aspect. We share this monitor with clients with Bloomberg Terminals.  An added feature is that each market/ETF can be expanded with each component force ranked in the same way.  A couple other features include price deviation from intraday VWAP (useful for intraday reversals) and new 20 day highs/lows on right side.  Please inquire if you would like to be permissioned to use the PPO Monitor.  

Today's highlights:  Watch the sectors breaking below the 10 day and those also below the 20 day.  That's trend change potential.  A lot of ETF's down on day but above the VWAP slightly bullish for today if those levels hold.  


The following chart shows the Percentage Price Oscillator (50 day moving average) in action.   IYR Reits rolling and under the 20 day.  That's the second indicator below

 
Currencies


US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 58%


US Dollar Index still range bound


Euro bullish sentiment is at 27%


Euro Spot also range bound


British Pound Sterling with Setup 9.  Could see pullback in near term



 
European Markets


Euro Stoxx 50 has the elements to pullback


German DAX with Setup 9

 
Global Markets - EEM taking a time out


EEM Emerging Markets ETF should continue to pull back


EEM vs SPY ratio was one reason I liked EEM long but after the upside 13 I took profits on EEM.  I expect a time out lower

 
FXI China / Hong Kong ETF and Hang Seng


China / Hong Kong FXI ETF reversing lower as expected


Hong Kong Hang Seng hit the wave 3 price objective with some Countdown 13's  pullback here expected

 
Copper Update


Copper bullish sentiment is at 53% and still hasn't really picked up enough bulls


Copper is approaching the upside wave 3 price objective and should hit it in next few days.  


Copper vs Gold ratio custom index shows this on day 7  of 13 with upside Countdown

 
Crude Update


Crude bullish sentiment is at 80% and remains extreme above 80%


WTI Crude Futures a big bounce today after a big inventory decline.  

 
Gold Update


Gold bullish sentiment is at 77% and still remains elevated


Gold continues lower as expected


Gold Miners GDX ETF also down

 
Bond Update


Bond bullish sentiment is at 78%


US 10 Year Yield up today and tomorrow will be the tell if this can continue


US 2/10 Year Yield Curve looks like it could steepen

 

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