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It's getting warmer here (finally) and flip flop weather is eagerly anticipated after this very long Winter.  What isn't so welcome is the flip flop happening in the markets seemingly dictated by tweets from President Trump.  Trading too frequently or too large is a good way to chop yourself up in this action and mainly why I've said this market is very tricky at this juncture and to remain nimble.   The defensive sectors have been leading the market higher (energy, metals, utilities) and the risk on (financials, industrials, biotech, transports and tech) have lagged.  Today it's a noticeable flip flop on the PPO monitor.  It's a mad scramble to get back into the sectors working. Keep in mind, yesterday had the lowest volume of the year and investors are sitting on their hands with buyers higher and sellers lower.  Watch out for the late day sell offs too as traders will take down some exposure to avoid overnight risk - Syria, China, etc.   

Financials started off the earnings season in a positive tone with Blackrock trading up 2.5% despite inflows for the quarter down 46% yoy.  Tomorrow JPM and WFC report.  JPM has an implied move and has traded up 8 of the last 15 quarters after earnings.  WFC has an implied move of 3% and it should be noted that it has traded up only twice in the last 15 quarters after earnings.  

I'm headed into NYC for some meetings today with clients and will return any emails or calls tonight or tomorrow.  

Notable:

• US Markets - Tactically short term this bounce could start to stall in the next day
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - No changes
  
• European Market - Improving yet expecting some consolidation
  
• Currencies - USD and Bitcoin
  
• Asian Markets - Consolidation
  
• AAII Sentiment Poll - My thoughts on this poll
  
• How about this as a sentiment read - Larry Fink
  
• More Big Tech
  
• Bond Update - 2/10 Spread nearly exhausted and a look at High Yield
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

SPX bullish sentiment is at 27%
Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, commodities, and commodities updated each day.   

SPY has bounced in choppy action.  There is now a Wave 4 downside price objective lower at 244.24

Tactically the 30 minute chart of SPY is nearing some upside exhaustion

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 30% and down from 34% the previous day

QQQ now is in Wave 2/B and should make a lower high and then lower low

Tactically the QQQ on 30 minute time frame is nearing some upside exhaustion (could be there now since I pulled this chart at 10:15.  It's also in the 5th wave too. 

IWM Russell 2000 ETF has been notably stronger on a relative basis and a green Setup 9 is approaching.  Short term price reaction is likely for this early next week

Tactically on the IWM 30 minute chart there is some upside exhaustion around here and I wouldn't be surprised to see a late day pullback.

No changes today.  Giving a little back in this chop.  

Italy has bounced nicely off the downside Countdown red 13 and has a green Setup 9 today.  Consolidation is likely

Germany is inching higher and is back above the 50 day.  If there is consolidation it might be an opportunity to start buying this index.

Euro Stoxx 600 is also inching higher yet it is likely in Wave 4 with a downside Wave 5 lower ahead.

The US Dollar is bouncing and has again held the recent low.  

Bitcoin is up in a big way (not like it was in December) but up enough to mention.  8780 is resistance and there still is a downside red Countdown on day 8 of 13.  

Nikkei as expected is consolidating.  Support at 21000

The AAII Sentiment poll is a weekly poll where they ask investors if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral.  I think this poll is crap as neutral is a good way to avoid if you're long or short.  And this is a poll that usually bulls ONLY mention when bears get to high levels.  They never mentioned it at the top.  I like Helene and Michael but wanted to point out how this was going around on Twitter

This is the AAII poll results.  I just think the Daily Sentiment Index is so much better which what I use and chart

Larry Fink of Blackrock says you should be 100% in stocks.  Considering his firm saw less inflows in the past quarter, Larry's kids need new shoes!

Apple continues higher and is in Wave 2/B thus I expect a lower high and lower low.  Don't look for this quarter's earnings to impress as every check on iPhone sales is weak.  

Amazon has a gap to fill on the upside and I don't think that's going to happen.  The Wave 2/B hasn't triggered yet (needs to make a 13 day closing high)

Microsoft's chart looks similar to Apple with the Wave 2/B

Overall the XLK ETF dominated with the largest weights remains well off the highs.  A lower high is likely ahead

Bond bullish sentiment is back to 50%

The 2/10 Yield Curve Spread is on day 12 of 13.  Steepening is very possible soon.  

High Yield bounced off the recent downside red Countdown 13.  This is due a lot in part to the many energy related issues that have stabilized with the increase in Crude prices

The weekly of the High Yield still shows a rolling over pattern.  

This is another High Yield ETF on a weekly time frame too that shows that rolling over and with the Wave 5 downside price objective.  Risk can come at you fast looking back at the 2008, 2010, and 2011, and 2015 corrections.  

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