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I've been totally taken with the Masters this year as Tiger is back and the competition is exceptionally strong.  I'm cutting the comments short today as I know many of you are also watching.  Sorry it's late today.  

Yesterday's huge reversal was huge and hard to poke at as it was what the bulls needed to defend recent support levels.  As my recent comments have alluded to, the set up currently is tough.  We've seen a ton of downside DeMark exhaustion signals on a daily time frame yet the majority of them are in the 3rd of 5 down waves.  The next wave is up and it will make a lower high (to lock in wave 4 a 13 day closing high needs to happen - and that does not mean it can't a little higher before lower).  Tomorrow is the US employment report and I expect it to be good and this is a market that obviously has been feeding on good news.  I suppose the Larry Kudlow comments yesterday that the "tariffs are just proposals" was good enough to rally. That's a low bar. 

Below I have added some trade ideas to the Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas list.  These are ideas and not recommendations.  You can read the disclaimer at the bottom of each email.  They are all set at 2.5% or 5% initial sizing and there is a set stop at 10% for each.  Ideas can change at any time.  We are just now rolling this out and it's going to be a work in progress. 

Still a tricky market with some potential for more upside from the recent lows and I would watch for support VWAP levels from yesterday's low:  S&P futures: 2625, SPY: 261.70, QQQ: 158.10, IWM: 151.20, DIA: 240.00

Notable:

• US Markets - Sentiment improving off lows but still very tricky tactical market.  Stay nimble
  
• Trade Ideas - Added a bunch of names and holding a few index losers
  
• Europe - DAX big day but still sidelines
  
• Gold Update - Downside Countdown on day 9 of 13.  I'm neutral still
  
• Crude Update - Held the 50 day
  
• Asian Market - Nikkei sentiment big move up but too much too fast?
  
• Currencies - USD, Euro, Bitcoin
  
• Bond Update - Bounce didn't do much - Neutral again
  
• DeMark Screens
  

SPX bullish sentiment is at 31% and up from 9% two days ago
Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, commodities, and commodities updated each day.   

SPY bounced and engulfed the previous day to the upside.  There is an upside green Setup on day 3 of 9 and still a lonely red 1 Countdown on the bottom.  We've seen this before.  Wave 3 was locked in on the downside so wave 4 is ahead.  That's a lower low bounce

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 33% up from 8% two days ago

QQQ still has a downside red Countdown on day 2 of 13 and a green Setup on day 2 of 9.  There is a down slopping 50 day moving average above on many indexes that will be resistance

Short term tactical 30 min time frame on E Minis is on its wave 5 and has some upside exhausion too.  It's been pretty good at recent short term inflection points.  

Remember when I would post charts and stats showing the number of days without a 1% one day move?  When this lifts, volatility is back.

The Dow also locked in the 3rd downside wave of 5 and for the 4th wave to lock in a close over 24,727 is needed.  Yes I am surprised how the 3rd wave barely broke the low of wave 1.  

This is today's trade ideas list.  Yesterday with an hour to go I added SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA short with 2.5% weight.  CRAPPY timing as they kept going into the close.  They are just trade ideas and I'll hold the losers for now. They could be gonzo tomorrow with the NFP report.  I will tweet out if I cover those.   I added some new ideas and a few that I have mentioned before but I did it to lock in the prices "officially."   I will be  adding more in the coming days and all of these have a set stop at 10%.  

AIG as a long idea had recent downside exhaustion and has turned up with a new upside price flip.  Its was in wave 5 too.  

APA a long idea was mentioned a week ago and I still like it with the upside Countdown

BBY is a short idea with a series of lower high and just locked in wave 4 with a wave 5 downside price objective of 60.44.  If you want to be use the Jan top as a stop, it's fine.

GOOGL is tricky as a short but there is a downside Countdown on day 2 of 13 and today's action is less that convincing (trading below open)

GS as a short is now in wave 2/B and could go a little higher before lower but this is a pattern of lower highs.  

SLB as a long idea is something I've mentioned before and have traded it on the long side before.  A move over 67-70 zone could get this moving higher.  

DAX Index had a very nice and big gap up but it could get the 4th wave locked in with just 100 more points higher.  Down slopping 50 day is a tough resistance point too

Gold Futures still doesn't interest me on either side with it now on day 9 of 13 to the downside.  I'm neutral

Crude bullish sentiment is at 57% not very exciting

Crude futures bounced back over the 50 day yesterday (after my note went out) and continues to be a level to watch for support.  

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 52% and that's up from 6% on 3/23.  Too much too fast?  Maybe

Nikkei did have that downside exhaustion 13 and has bounced.  I remain neutral for now

US Dollar Index bullish sentiment is at 49% and stuck right at the midpoint.  I think it goes higher but I've felt that for a few weeks now

DXY US Dollar Index is on day 8 of 13 with an upside Countdown and needs to push higher in the coming days

British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment is at 64% and has been holding the 60% level

Sterling has dipped under the 50 day moving average.  

Euro bullish sentiment is at 63% and has been drifting lower

Euro has support at 1.22 then 1.20 a wave 5 price objective

Bitcoin continues lower and has a green Setup 9 today which could see a few days of relief yet there is a downside red Countdown on day 7 of 13.  The downside Wave 5 price objective is at 1135.  Yes 1135

Bond bullish sentiment is at 45% failing to follow through from the 55% level the other day.  

TLT Bond ETF remains on day 12 of 13 but the for 13 to trigger it has to make a low under the 8th red bar at 118.  Some bond weakness is ahead.  I thought a bounce would be better but it might just be better being patient.  

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