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10/25/18
Thomas Thornton
Top Overnight News

  • S&P futures up 0.6% after US equities sold off sharply in prior session. Asian markets mostly lower overnight, though China eked out a gain. European markets stronger. German Business Confidence missed; 102.8 vs. 103.2 estimate and 103.7 last month.  Italian assets among the best performers. Treasuries slightly weaker with some curve steepening. Dollar a bit stronger vs yen but a bit weaker vs euro and sterling. Gold up 0.35%. WTI crude up .25%.
  • Earnings seem to be the driver of bounce in sentiment. Amid all the concerns about peak growth, Q3 metrics have been solid and 2019 expectations have actually pushed a bit higher over last few weeks. In addition, macro commentary on Q3 conference calls has been fairly upbeat and Q3 GDP report tomorrow expected to put some attention back on the US economic outperformance theme.
  • Microsoft the post-earnings standout with focus on strength in hybrid computing although Azure Cloud business was a little light. Tesla beat expectations and there are so major accounting questions which I will review on today's note.  I will be covering remaining long if it can stay over 325 for an hour today. Xilinx bucked the weak semi trend with help from strong data center business.  Ford beat on better NA EBIT and maintained EPS guidance. Whirlpool posted a big EPS beat and raised low end of guidance and I might reenter the long . Visa beat on payments volume. AMD under pressure following softer results and guidance, but elevated expectations the big overhang.  It was a good short from the 30's and I wish I didn't cover at 25.   AB Inbev fell the most in 10 years.  Twitter had a big beat.  
  • Pretty quiet from a headline perspective. Lot of articles have discussed the recent selloff, though nothing incremental. WSJ said US won't resume trade talks with China until it gets a firm proposal addressing forced tech transfers. Trump to give speech this afternoon on lowering drug prices. New Fed Vice Chair Clarida to give first remarks today since joining central bank, though expected to stick closely to consensus.
  • The S&P closed 110 points below its 200 moving average; that’s the most since March 2016 (when the index was at 2000).
  • Since the market top on Sept 21st, the S&P has been lower in 19 of the 24 subsequent sessions.  And "down days" have occurred with 2X the frequency of the last 3 corrections (Bloomberg).
  • Today’s the busiest of Earnings Season with at least 50 S&P names reporting.  173 names have now reported with 86% beating EPS bogeys (70%-75% is closer to the historical average).
  • Earnings today: (AAL, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, Anheuser Bush, AXTA, Bankinter, BC, BEN, BHGE, BMY, BWA, CELG, CFR, COP, CMCSA, CME, CRI, Daimler, DNKN, ENTG, GRUB, HSY, IP, KIM, KKR, LAZ, LEA, Lloyds Banking Group, LSTR, LUV, MCK, MMC, MO, MRK, NEM, NLSN, Nokia, RTN, SAVE, SHOP, SHW, SPG, SWK, THRM, TROW, TSCO, TWTR, UBS, UNP, USG, VC, VLY, WPP, WSO, and WWE before the open and AKS, AMZN, AVT, BMRN, BYD, CENX, CERN, CINF, CMG, CY, DECK, DFS, ELLI, EMN, EXPE, FBHS, FII, FLEX, FSLR, FTV, GILD, GOOGL, HIG, INTC, LOGM, LPLA, LSCC, LVS, MAT, MHK, NTGR, PFPT, PRO, RGA, SAM, SIVB, SNAP, SYK, VRSN, and WDC after the close)

Market Snapshot
US Economic Reports For The Rest Of The Week
Pre Market Movers
Key Levels



 


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Occasionally, an earnings report date could change, or could be incorrect. We rely on various sources including Street Account, Factset, and Bloomberg to compile this report.    

 

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