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10/15/18
Thomas Thornton
Top Overnight News

  • S&P futures down 0.3%, but off worst levels. Index suffered its biggest weekly decline since late March last week and was down for a third straight week for first time since June 2016 (Brexit). Asian markets sold off overnight with China, Japan and Hong Kong all down over 1%. European markets mixed. Treasuries stronger.  Dollar lagging both Yen and Euro. Gold up 1%. WTI crude up 0.75%.
  • Nothing specific behind latest bout of risk off. US-China tensions remain elevated with Trump reiterating threat of more tariffs, more mentions of new "Cold War" in press and China uncertain who it should be negotiating with. Italian budget, which will be submitted to Brussels today, another source of concern. Brexit negotiations on hold. Scandal surrounding Saudi Arabia’s role in disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi continues to get a lot of attention.  Saudi king orders probe into journalist disappearance.  
  • Crude stable despite a Saudi Arabia saying crude could "go to $200" if the US imposes sanctions and Saudi chooses to retaliate in any one of several measures (less oil production, allowing Russia to have a military base, weapons purchases from Russia, etc).
  • Lot of headlines, but nothing particularly incremental out of the weekend IMF/World Bank meetings. WSJ discussed how allies softened tone on US trade policy. China reiterated it won’t use yuan devaluation as a tool in trade battle. Also said it has plenty of room to adjust monetary policy to support economy. Mnuchin said he is not worried about China dumping Treasuries. Draghi told Italy it should not expect a rescue if budget talks with EU fail.   Italian budget will be released later today to ECB
  • Merkel’s coalition party in Germany is in jeopardy, as its 2 biggest members suffered heavy losses in regional elections
  • S&P’s 200 day moving average remains a key level (2766), as Friday the Index closed a point above it.  That metric has held as  support since early 2016 (when the S&P was at 2000).
  • Interesting that higher rates initially got the blame for last week’s equity selloff.  But rates were flat Thursday/Friday, and overnight are unchanged (and the US 10 Yr yield is seeing its smallest range in 2 weeks (2 bps).
  • US volume averaged 8.9B per day last week vs. the 2018 average of 6.9B, highest weekly total since February.
  • NYSE FANG index bounced 3.4% Friday vs. the S&P +1.4%.  However, it’s still -8% over last 7 sessions.
  • Pretty quiet in terms of corporate news. LLL and HRS announced merger of equals. As expected, Sears filed for bankruptcy and said it will begin closing 142 unprofitable stores. Paypal to raise Venmo fee. Bank of America earnings out inline and stock is flat.  

Market Snapshot
US Economic Reports Next Three Days - Watch US Retail Sales Today
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