First Call - Hedge Fund Telemetry

S&P futures down 0.2% off lows after US equities were mixed on Monday to start the quarter, ending off their best levels for the session. Asian equities mostly lower overnight. China closed for holiday again. European markets weaker. Treasuries firmer across the curve. Dollar lagging on risk-sensitive yen cross, but seeing good gains vs euro and sterling. Gold up 0.2%. WTI crude flat after rallying nearly 3% in prior session.
Quiet session. Trade continues to dominate the headlines with two big themes standing out. First is that revamped NAFTA deal not expected to provide any meaningful economic benefit and biggest positive simply revolves around removal of uncertainty. Second is that there has not been any progress between US and China (and US expected to impose more tariffs soon) and the deterioration in the relationship is now extending beyond trade.
Italian budget another overhang on risk sentiment with looming showdown with Brussels. Five-Star’s Di Maio said today Rome will not change its deficit targets. Not much on the economic calendar, though softer manufacturing data out on Monday seemed to be overshadowed by the more favorable trade headlines. WSJ article said Fed may provide more capital relief to banks. Another WSJ article discussed Fed’s "less is more" approach to guidance.
Amazon raising minimum wage to $15. Pepsi guided lower after reporting in line earnings. Activist disclosed 5.5% stake in Papa John's Pizza and said supportive of management’s efforts to boost sales. NY Times had latest article on production, logistics, quality and even potential demand issues at Tesla. StitchFix a big post-earnings decliner with elevated expectations flagged as the big overhang.

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