The Week Ahead

Another relatively quiet week on the corporate calendar but a few notable companies will release earnings including but not limited to (SFIX, LW, PAYX, PEP, AYI, LEN, RPM, SNX, STZ, COST). There will be a uptick in the number of investor meetings and brokerage conferences which will drive most of the news flow.

On the economic front we will see PMI data in the U.S. and Europe with U.S. trade balance and the big US Jobs report at the the end of the week. Chinese markets will be closed all week for local holiday.

A few notable sentiment readings: S&P 500 bulls are at 63% while the Nasdaq 100 bulls are at 75% - both divergent from recent price action. Crude bulls ended the week at 94% and is very extreme and should see an upside DeMark Sequential Countdown 13 this week. I've had a bullish bias on Crude and expect a pullback with both these data points. Nikkei and Yen sentiment are both at opposite extremes. Nikkei is at 92% and the Yen is at 10%.

A lot of headlines this weekend. Elon Musk settles with the SEC on his "funding secured" tweet. There still are other SEC investigations and a pending criminal investigation with the DOJ. The stock should bounce yet this wasn't part of the short thesis (pre August) so all of the other issues and negative catalysts remain. US and Canada NAFTA negotiations have a deadline today and it sounds like there could be a deal. China markets are closed all week but the PBOC acknowledged "more severe" global challenges and said it will step up it's policy tuning. The China Manufacturing PMI came in light at 50.8 vs 51.2 expected and the Non Manufacturing PMI a little higher at 54.9 vs 54 expected. Italy's Central Bank is pushing back at leadership's plan to set the budget at 2.4%. JPMorgan is concerned anything over 2% could result in a downgrade. Lastly, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination continues with likely a vote later in the week after another FBI investigation.

Monday 01-Oct

Corporate

Post-close: SFIX

Cantor Global Healthcare
Deutsche Bank Leveraged Financial

Analyst Meeting: SWX

Economic

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Construction Spending (Aug), US Manufacturing ISM (Sep), Fed speakers Rosengren, Bostic, Kashkari
Europe: Euro-zone: Markit PMI (Sep), Unemployment (Aug) Germany: Markit PMI (Aug), Retail sales (Aug) UK: BoE consumer credit (Aug), Markit Cips manufacturing PMI (Sep),
Asia (Sun PM / Mon AM): Japan: Tankan Manufacturing outlook (Q3), Nikkei manufacturing PMI final (Sep)

Tuesday 02-Oct

Corporate

Pre-open: LW, PAYX, PEP

BMO Capital Markets Global Energy
Deutsche Bank Leveraged Financial
Leerink Partners LLC Roundtable Series Rare Disease & Oncology
Cantor Global Healthcare
Ladenburg Thalmann Healthcare

Analyst Meeting: AHT, JBLU, GPX, BLL, ELGX, WDAY, SPLK
IPO: UPWK
PDUFA: ASRT, JNJ (Invokana)

Economic

US: Fed speakers Powell, Quarles
Europe: Euro-zone: PPI (Aug), Ecofin Meeting; UK: Construction PMI
Asia (Mon PM / Tues AM): Japan: Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Wednesday 03-Oct

Corporate

Pre-open: AYI, LEN, RPM
Post-close: SNX

Cantor Global Healthcare
Leerink Partners LLC Roundtable Series Rare Disease & Oncology
BMO Capital Markets Global Energy Leadership
Deutsche Bank Leveraged Financial

Analyst Meeting: CP, CRC, SCS, SNHY, CPST, HPQ, SMAR
IPO: GH, KOD

Economic

US: ADP jobs report (Sep), Services PMI (Sep), Services ISM (Sep), Fed speakers Evans, Barkin, Mester
Europe: Euro-zone: Markit Composite / services PMI final (Sep) Retail sales Germany: Markit Composite / services PMI (Sep) UK: Markit Cips PMI (Sep)
Asia (Tues PM / Wed AM ): Japan: Nikkei services PMI (Sep)

Thursday 04-Oct

Corporate

Pre-open: STZ
Post-close: ATZ.CN, COST

B. Riley FBR Consumer & Media

Analyst Meeting: AEE, ARNA, CP, CCOI, JEF, RIGL, TRC, VEEV
IPO: ESTC
PDUFA NOVN.SW, PRTK, ZLAB (Omadacycline), ROG.SW (Hemlibra)

Economic

US: Factory orders, durable goods (Aug), Fed speakers Quarles
Europe: Euro-zone: ECB Coeure speech Germany: Construction PMI (Sep) UK: New Car Sales (Sep)

Friday 05-Oct

Corporate

Analyst Meeting: BDSI, CALA
PDUFA: ACPH.BB (Barhemsys), BHC (Bryhali)

Economic

US: Jobs report (Sep), Trade balance (Aug), Consumer credit (Aug)
Europe: Germany: Factory orders (Aug), PPI (Aug) UK: Halifax House (Sep), Labor Productivity (Q2-final)
Asia (Thurs PM / Fri AM): Japan: Household spending (Oct), FX reserves (Sep), Leading econ index

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