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Tariff repercussions are coming to the US
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President Trump turned tariffs in to a verb today saying countries who do not make fair deals with the US will be "Tariffed." Last week he threw out a potential $200 billion on Chinese products entering the US and China over the weekend responded by saying they will walk away from any talks. But the big news that is not getting much attention is that some Chinese officials advising the leadership are proposing to step up the trade fight a notch by restricting China’s sales of materials, equipment and other parts key to U.S. manufacturers’ supply chains .. Such restrictions could even apply to Apple Inc.’s iPhones, which are assembled in the mainland, officials said. H/T MS. I've said the nuclear tariff bomb would be if China went after Apple since these are products that so many people rely on daily and it's the largest US company. Even within Chinese media the backlash over Apple is getting louder. This is coming at a critical time for Apple with the release of new iPhones.
The concerns go deeper if the Chinese go after supply chains of various manufacturers. This could cause terrible bottlenecks as well it will be felt throughout the US economy with higher prices. Again, nobody wins in a trade war.
Today's market started
off with the mega cap tech/consumer stocks falling sharply and as I've shown throughout the year the NDX attribution, it's highlighted again below. A lot of stuff on today's note with a few extra currencies I'm watching as well a new automated pattern recognition page with more trade ideas. New site is coming. Just a few bugs needed to work out. And for clients, if you want a copy of Jason Perl's book on DeMark Indicators, send an email with your address and I'll send you a copy.
- US Markets - Stalling with divergence in sentiment
- Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Removed IWC short, added GWPH long
- NDX Attribution - What goes up can go down
- PPO Monitor - Seeing some rotation
- FANG Custom Index - Broken 50 day different from February
- GW Pharma - New long idea
- Twitter - A wave study
- Retail XRT ETF - Update
- Bloomberg Automated pattern recognition ideas
- Currency Update
- European Market Update
- Global Market Update
- Asian Market Update
- Crude Update
- Gold Update
- Bond Update
- DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600 - NOTE I HAVE CHANGED BACK TO S&P 500 SO PEOPLE CAN FOCUS ON THE LARGEST STOCKS
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Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.
SPX bullish sentiment is at 74%
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SPX daily stalling below the highs
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Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 67% and diverging from recent price action
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NDX Index could be making a lower high. Watch the 50 day for a break
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Dow Jones Industrial Average stalling at highs
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IWM Russell 2000 going to make a run for the 50 day with support at 166.09
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Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas
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Trade Ideas - Removed IWC Micro Cap - small gain, Added GWPH long 2.5% size
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Here's today's attribution. Notice the number of points the big cap names are taking off the index and how few points the leaders are adding to the index today
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YTD still shows the top 3 AMZN, AAPL, and MSFT dominating the index percentage move. And FB is now taking off 3% of the gains.
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PPO Percentage Price Oscillator
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The PPO monitor is starting to show some ETF's breaking below the 10 and 20 day moving averages like XRT, QQQ, XLF, IWM, SMH and a couple moving up like GDX
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FANG in February held the 50 day while every other index broke below. All the indexes are holding the 50 day now while the FANG index is now below the 50 day. A real difference.
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AMZN woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. A bounce off the 50 day is likely but I do expect it to break it soon
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Apple's new iPhone sales started off a little slower on the first weekend according to some reports. This should trade back to the 50 day at 207
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GW Pharma - A new long idea
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GW Pharma makes cannabis related medical products and has some FDA approvals for some therapies. I like the upside potential with the current DeMark Countdown.
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Twitter is carving out a 5 wave downside move. The first wave down (yellow 1) was followed by wave 2 (yellow 2) and now is in wave 3 with a downside price objective of 21.87.
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The weekly on XRT now has a green one (price flip - trading lower than 4 previous weeks)
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Bloomberg Automated Technical Pattern Recognition Screens
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I will be adding this to the daily note as it offers some interesting trade ideas. Let me know what you think
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US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 27% and down from 96% a month ago
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Euro bullish sentiment is at 53%
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Yuan still weak but in a tight range
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Euro Stoxx 50 still hard to call a bottom
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Shanghai still no turn up
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India Nifty 50 Index still should work lower
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Crude bullish sentiment is at 78%
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Gold bullish sentiment is at 21%
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Gold Miners having a strong day up 2% today
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Bond bullish sentiment is at 62%
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US 10 Year Yield should work higher
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US 30 Year Yield should work higher
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IEF 7-10 year duration ETF should work lower
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DEMARK SCREENS - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals
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Daily/Weekly DeMark upside/downside exhaustion signals (Sequential) weekly updated on Monday's and monthly on the first day of the new month. Price flips occur when a stock closes higher/lower than four previous closes and increases conviction of a price turn.
The upside 13's are sell signals and downside 13's are buy signals. Price flip's are confirmation signals that increases potential for a price trend change. For example, if you are long a stock and there is an upside 13, you will want to take cautious action by selling down or out of a position. If initiating a short sale with the upside 13's, we tend to start with a 1/2 size and add with the downside price flip. The opposite is true for when there are downside 13's. Take a 1/2 size position
and add with the upside price flip. The DeMark Indicators are designed to assist the user with buying into weakness and selling into strength to anticipate trend exhaustion. Selling into a rally and buying into a decline often afford the opportunity to exit a trade without too serious a loss if wrong.
S&P 500 Universe: DAILY UPSIDE 13: AVB, BLL, CB, EFX, GIS, IBM, JEC DAILY DOWNSIDE 13: ARE, EXR, WHR
DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN: AVB, RSG, SBUX, YUM DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP: LBK, HIG, SWKS
Updated: 9/17/18 WEEKLY UPSIDE 13: COST, EFX, HON, IR, JWN, LOW, RCL WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13: BHGE
Updated: 9/4/18 MONTHLY UPSIDE 13: AFG, AJG, AMD, CBT, CECO, EIG, IR, MAA, MRCY, MSA, MSFT, NSC, ORI, ROK, TDY, TTWO, UNT, UNP, WCG, WTR MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13: FTR, RRD, SMCI,
SSI
Euro Stoxx 600 Universe: DAILY UPSIDE 13: BKIA SM, BPOST BB, DCC LN, MF FP, NN NA DAILY DOWNSIDE 13: BA/ LN
DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN: SRG IM, TNET BB, TRN IM, US IM DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP: 1COV
GR, ATC NA, BN/ LN, ENX LN, FR FP, SMIN LN
Updated: 9/17/18 WEEKLY UPSIDE 13: NONE WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13: DIA SM, EOAN GR, INGA NA
Updated: 9/4/18 MONTHLY UPSIDE 13: ACKB BB, GALP PL, IPN FP, KOMB CP, MTX GR, UCB BB MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13: ALPHA GA, BARC LN, TL5 SM
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