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I have been reading a book by James Carse called Finite and Infinite Games.  It's a really good book that puts a lot of different aspects of life in to context.  He states:  "There are at least two kinds of games, one could be called finite; the other infinite.   Finite games are the familiar contests of everyday life; they are played in order to be won, which is when they end. But infinite games are more mysterious. Their object is not winning, but ensuring the continuation of play. The rules may change, the boundaries may change, even the participants may change—as long as the game is never allowed to come to an end."  Finite is short term thinking that could bring wealth and power but infinite is much deeper and longer term. 

In the book there isn't reference to money management but it was all I could think of since many of us are stuck in the what is happening now and how can I make money today while the bigger money and more importantly long term success is from thinking beyond today.  Hedge fund and mutual fund managers are constantly graded each month and are paid each year for what they return to investors.  I thought of a couple questions such as are private investors in a better position than those being paid to manage money for others to have better longer term returns?  Are people constantly chasing performance each day and month hindering longer term returns?  At this point in my life, I'm thinking more in infinite terms in the sense of ensuring the continuation of play.  I've had some great years that had cold periods in the middle but looking back things tend to work out when following an investment process while not getting too concerned about the short term returns.  I recommend the book and would love to hear your opinions.  

I've heard through the grapevine recently that a couple very large well known macro managers are getting rather bearish.  One believes the FANG stocks will drop by 50% and another sees the market with a few more weeks left before a larger drop will start moving the indexes down by 50% which is a different call than his rip higher into end of year previous call.  These are guys who have thought only in the infinite in every aspect of their careers.  

Hope everyone has a good weekend and to my friends in the South, I hope you and your families are safe and recover quickly from the hurricane.  Lastly, we are be launching the new website on Monday with a few more features to be added in the coming weeks. 

• US Markets - Sentiment still elevated yet divergent from price
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Removed KRE short and added GS long
  
• VIX Index - Somebody just put on a big trade and VIX COT data shows more people short vs February
  
• Retail Thoughts - Costco downgrade from Wells today sums up everything I've been expecting
  
• IBM Update - Upside Countdown 13 today
  
• Boeing Update - Choppy all year and much different from 2017
  
• Currency Update - USD should work lower or at least take a time out
  
• European Market Update - Lower highs and lower lows pattern
  
• Global Market Update - Still sideways
  
• Asian Market Update - Nikkei looks higher, China and Hong Kong trying to turn up
  
• Crude Update - Bouncing a little today
  
• Gold Update - nearly 2 months going sideways
  
• Bond Update - Expect a move over 3% on the US 10 year yield
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600 - NOTE I HAVE CHANGED BACK TO S&P 500 SO PEOPLE CAN FOCUS ON THE LARGEST STOCKS
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 74% still elevated

SPX daily has potential to move a little more but risk reward is dwindling for more upside

SPX 60 minute tactical time frame still has potential for failure here

S&P new highs on index but fewer new 52 week highs

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 66% divergent from index price.  Pardon the bad formatting.  All new charts coming next week with the new site

NDX Index same story as SPX

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly has some upside exhaustion to consider.  This shows how strong 2017 was and it's quite unusual historically with the DeMark Indicators

Trade Ideas - removed KRE short with small gain after downside Countdown 13 yesterday.  Added GS long 2.5% for a bounce.  Going to tighten stops on everything and will explain more on Monday

There was a large call spread for November 76k contracts buying the 20's, selling the 26's.  Also they sold equal amount of 13 puts.  This is a big bet

VIX needs a little lower to get the 13.  Note sure we'll get it

Movement Capital is a great follow on Twitter as they look at COT data better than anyone out there and remarkably it's free.  This is really quite a surprise to me as I thought the Feb wash out of the ridiculous inverse ETF's flushed out the sellers of volatility.  Apparently not.  

Wells Fargo downgraded Costco today and cited everything I've been expecting with almost every other retail stock.  Thanks to Carl Quintanilla who posted this on his Twitter today.  Hi Carl, when are we going to do that lunch?

XRT Retail daily show a drift up after the daily upside exhaustion signals but the rate of change has slowed

XRT weekly has some upside exhaustion that worked well the last time

Erlanger Research is the best for analyzing short interest and options activity.  The put call is very low right now and the other times it was here there was a bounce.  I think this can bounce so I'm buying it with only 2.5% size.  

GS has a green Setup 9 too and that indicator worked well after a few days too

A lot of people were putting out Tweets yesterday talking about an IBM breakout.  Whenever there are upside 13 Countdowns the probability is very low for a good breakout

BA has been going sideways all year in a range after 2017's ripper higher.  I still believe this will work lower

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 25% and down from 96% when I voiced concern that the extreme level of 96% had to see the USD come down

US Dollar Index should continue lower.  Maybe not a sharp move but a gradual perhaps 5 wave move lower

Euro bullish sentiment is at 60% a new high for this move

Euro Spot

Yuan still at the same place and has not gained to alleviate any of the tariff tension.  This is probably the best read on how well the tariff talks are going.

Euro Stoxx 50

German DAX

UK FTSE

Bloomberg World Index

EEM Emerging Markets ETF needs more juice to get momentum back

India Nifty 50

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 71%

Nikkei looks higher

Hong Kong trying to bounce

FXI Hong Kong China ETF with some potential upside targets

Crude bullish sentiment is at 80% and still extreme

Crude bouncing today after a bad day

Gold bullish sentiment is at 27%

Gold Futures nearing the 50 day and has gone sideways now for nearly 2 months.  A bottom?  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 67% still relatively elevated considering yields have been lifting

US 10 year yield looks higher but needs to break resistance.  

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