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9/12/18
Thomas Thornton
Top Overnight News

  • S&P futures little changed following back to back gains for the index in the wake of a four-day losing streak last week. Asian equities mostly lower overnight. European equities mixed. Treasuries mostly firmer across the curve following another big backup in yields on Tuesday. Dollar better on the euro cross but off a bit vs yen. Gold down 0.3%. WTI crude up 0.9% above $70 for the first time in a month on concerns of Hurricane supply disruption.
  • No big directional drivers in play. No great explanation for recent bounce in US equities, particularly amid continued dollar strength, negative EM sentiment and some renewed concerns about a more aggressive Fed. At the same time however, there really has not been any significant change in the positive US fundamental narrative (strong earnings, late-cycle fiscal stimulus, aggressive share buybacks, deregulation).
  • Trade continues to get the bulk of the attention. NAFTA headlines have been more upbeat with Canada reportedly willing to offer concessions on dairy in exchange for keeping dispute resolution mechanism (though this has been mentioned before). Both US and Canadian officials have also been out with positive comments. Nothing incremental on China, though US businesses stepping up their opposition to Trump’s tariffs.
  • More volatility in the Brexit/UK leadership headlines. Bloomberg said ECB to slightly cut its growth outlook, while inflation forecast to stay unchanged. A few pieces of economic data out ahead of US PPI print that is likely to get outsized scrutiny. South Korea’s jobless rate highest since financial crisis in August. China August bank lending and money supply growth came in softer than expected. July Eurozone industrial production growth unexpectedly contracted.
  • Apple expected to launch three new iPhone models at today’s event, dubbed (cautiously) the iPhone 9, iPhone Xs and iPhone Xs+ (or iPhone Xs Max). Media and sell-side previews discussed how bulk of the scrutiny will be on pricing (particularly when it comes to the new "price point" and high-end models), as higher ASPs have helped cushion the slowdown in smartphone demand.
  • DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach’s on his webcast Tuesday after the close. Noted next move in the dollar likely to be down given Trump wants to see the greenback lower. Also said while he does not see 10-year yield going down to 2.25%, there could be a significant short squeeze given the extent of the speculative short positioning. Noted S&P could end down for the year, closing its divergence with other stock markets that have underperformed the US. Added now may be a good time to add commodities given they usually do well late in the economic cycle.
  • Attorney General Sessions exploring a potential investigation of social media companies.
  • Two Fed speakers today including St. Louis head Bullard; he’s among the biggest dove’s and likely will reference that flat yield curve as a warning to not raise rates too quickly

Market Snapshot
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