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Yesterday, I highlighted the narrow attribution within the Nasdaq 100 and it was incredibly telling how the Nasdaq 100 was at the old highs but only 15/100 stocks hit 20 day highs.  Within the S&P there were only 11% hitting new 20 day highs.  Volume was very light (typical and nothing out of the ordinary when markets are going up) but breadth surges have been absent which is an issue if you're bullish. According to Chris Verrone at Strategas Research the top 10 weights in the S&P have contributed 45% of the total return YTD vs 26% in 2016 and 33% in 2017.  It's not a historical extreme but telling how narrow stock selection has become after the pullback.  

The Nasdaq 100 Futures threaded a needle yesterday as they completed an upside red Countdown 13 while not making a new closing high thus keeping the downside wave pattern intact.  FANG + and several technology indexes triggered upside exhaustion signals yesterday too including the equal weight ETF.  And there's now longer term monthly charts with upside exhaustion and a couple with weekly Countdowns late in the count on week 11 or 12 of 13.  It is possible however, the habit of buying the largest of tech weights lingers on for a while more.   

In the past couple weeks, I've added short exposure via puts on several indexes for March and April.  One of the things I stressed was sizing and my initial sizing has been 2.5% notional AUM.  I never like being underwater on anything, yet when sized right the amount I could lose is manageable and defined.  As far as the 18 stocks I screened as short candidates, it's mixed and I'm confident the analysis will be correct.

Notable:

• US Markets - Nasdaq threaded the needle yesterday
  
• Tech and FANG Indexes - upside exhaustion signals on several time frames
  
• Asia and Emerging Markets - Cautious action
  
• USD, Euro, and Gold - Update
  
• Tesla - Adding a little more to short side.  God help me
  
• CFA's vs public companies - An unreal chart
  
• DeMark Screens
  
• 
  

SPX bullish sentiment is at 54% and it's been very much all over the place in February to say the least.  It's at the midpoint of the range and now the onus on the bulls to take this higher.  Considering breadth and volume hasn't been so great, I am sticking with my belief of lower lows ahead.

S&P 500 top 10 weights custom index has an upside green Setup 9 similar to signal seen on so many indexes and stocks near the lows in mid February.  A move back to the 50 day seems likely at a mininum and that's 6.4% lower.  

S&P futures still has that wave 2/B pattern and remains 100 points away from the old highs..  Watch the 2735 50 day moving average support as I suspect many others will be watching it too.  The real level is 2700 from last week.  

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 56% and considering the index is at the highs... that's a pretty big negative divergence.  

The Nasdaq 100 Futures on a daily threaded the needle by getting high enough to trigger the upside exhaustion red Countdown 13 but didn't make a closing high which would have negated the wave setup.  If it did the wave 5 count would revert and it would still be in the 5th wave and that wouldn't make it less overbought or a fantastic buy

RYT Equal weight technology ETF also had both a pink Combo and red Sequential upside 13 exhaustion yesterday. That blue line is the wave 5 upside price objective which got pretty close

S&P Info Tech Index is weighted with the big boys at the top but that also had both Combo and Sequential upside 13's

NYFANG + Index had it's upside red Countdown 13 yesterday.  This is now in wave 5 unlike other indexes which were already in wave 5.  

Hong Kong Hang Seng had a rough night with a bearish engulfing day (higher high vs previous day but closing lower than previous day).  When the US markets were doing so well in January the Hang Seng was too.  Another divergence.

FXI China large cap ETF is down over 3% today and has a downside red Countdown on day 3 of 13.

India Nifty 50 Index has a tepid bounce and remains under the 50 day moving average.  Breaking the recent lows will open up the downside wave 3 with a price objective of 9884

EEM Emerging Markets ETF had a sharp bounce after the downside green Setup 9 but seems to be chopping around but remains over the 50 day.  A break of the 50 will likely get the sellers active

EEM with the Countdowns visible shows it on day 4 of 13 with a downside red Countdown

EWZ Brazil ETF also threaded a needle.  The recent downside green Setup 9 was a good buy signal so perhaps the upside green Setup 9 will be too. 

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 44% and could break above 50% soon.  

DXY Index US Dollar Index has resistance at 90.60 and 90.72 the downward sloping 50 day moving average.  

Euro has been probing the 1.22 level and now has a downside wave 3 in progress with a 1.2084 downside price objective

Gold bullish sentiment is at 59% and will be likely lower on today's poll.  Watch the 50% level

GLD Gold is just above the 50 day moving average and that's the line in the sand I've mentioned if you're still long.  I was long from December's downside 13 to the January 13 and that was fine for me.  I know a lot of people want to see Gold breakout but I don't have the confidence here.    

GDX Gold Miners ETF still looks weak and is on day 6 of 13 with a downside red Countdown.  

I added another 2.5% to the short position making my average price 351 with a 5% position.  I  using a strict 375 stop.  Wide enough for anything Elon Musk can imagine or promise.  This is not for the faint of heart or uninitiated short seller.  The ONLY reason I am doing this is the green upside Setup 9 today.  Size matters so keep it VERY small and tight.  This might be one of the hardest stocks to short I've ever experienced.  

This is a chart from the good people at ISI showing the number of CFA's vs the number of public companies.  This is an amazing chart.  

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