First Call - Hedge Fund Telemetry

S&P futures down 0.1%, a bit off worst levels. European equity markets lower as well, following mostly softer levels in Asia. Treasuries are weaker across the curve. Dollar softer overall, but little changed on the yen and euro crosses. Gold is up 0.25%. Oil is little changed, on track for a weekly loss.
Trade the main focus despite few incremental development. No indication when US will follow up on threat to impose tariffs on next $200B of Chinese imports (note public consultation period has now ended). China has vowed to retaliate against any new tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump indicated Japan could be his next trade target.
Elsewhere on trade, reports suggest Canada and US unlikely to reach a NAFTA deal this week. However, Trump said earlier he believes Canada will ultimately end up as part of a revised NAFTA. Brexit reports still dominated by lack of enthusiasm for Chequers plan. More Italian press reports indicate spending of up to €30B in 2019 budget.
Macro focus is on nonfarm payrolls. Street looking for pickup in headline jobs growth and a downtick in unemployment rate. Wednesday’s ADP miss reducing expectations for a big NFP print today. If the unemployment hits its 3.8% estimate, that would match May for the lowest level since data began being collected. Other highlights include weaker German industrial production after yesterday's unexpected drop in factory orders. Japan data came in mixed with wage growth missing expectations but household spending recovering. China FX reserve largely met consensus.
S&P bullish sentiment is now 66% and down from 80% four days ago. Breaking 50% would start an acceleration lower in the markets.
US Dollar down again today and I am now leaning to the recent thoughts that lower levels are possible. Support on US Dollar Index is at 92.50
FANG underperformance continues as well; the NYSE FANG index (actually has 10 components) is -5.4% over the last 3 sessions.
Yesterday the VIX traded above 15 for only the 3rd time since the week of July 4th (and back to that level pre-open this morning).

Today I am going to put out a short Daily Note as we are working on the new website that will launch next week.

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