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2/25/18
Thomas Thornton
The Week Ahead - Key Events and Focus

Earnings season continues with numerous January quarter end companies reporting. Most of the bigger names will be in the retail and tech focused with companies including but not limited to M, ADI, LOW, TJX, CRM, GPS, JWN, SPLK, VMW, FL, and JCP.   I am very interested in hearing forward guidance with these companies as I do believe the bar has been set very high.

On the economic calendar we will see new home sales on Monday followed by advance goods and durable goods order on Tuesday and a second look at Q4 GDP and Chicago PMI (always a good early read on the ISM reports) on Wednesday. Thursday we will see vehicle sales and Core PCE index. Internationally the week will see Euro-zone Core inflation numbers on Wednesday and China PMI late Wednesday / early Thursday with Euro-zone ISM and PMI on Thursday

Friday's market action pulled most of the indexes away from a down week. With minor gains for the week on most indexes except the Nasdaq 100.  The Nasdaq 100 has been the strongest of all the indexes due to the continued narrow attribution with the FANG stocks.  As evidence within the NDX YTD, Amazon has attributed 28%, Microsoft 12%, Netflix 7%, Apple 6%, Nvdia 5.5%, Cisco 5%, Google 7%.  That's 70% of the gain from only 7 out of 100 companies.  I've run a bunch of attribution studies over the years with different time frames and it has tended to range from 40%-55% so the 70% is even more narrow.  The FANG+ Index should also trigger a daily upside exhaustion signal on Monday while there is a monthly upside exhaustion signal this month.  Bullish sentiment ended the week on Friday with the S&P at 40% and the Nasdaq at 46%.  Those are actually a little below last Monday's readings but there is a positive as they are over the 10 day moving average of sentiment by a few points.  The week was dominated by intraday sell offs but Friday broke that 4 day pattern closing on the highs.  Even after the close the futures continued to lift to the 4:15pm futures close.  This action tells me there were derivative desks at several dealers caught on the wrong side late in the day.   
Earnings, Conferences, Economic Reports

    Monday 26-Feb:
      Corporate:
        Earnings:
        • Pre-open: CPRT, CRK, DF,
        • Post-close: CRZO, FIT, FRGI, PANW, PDCE, PEGA, SBAC, SNI, THC
        Brokerage Conferences:
        • JMP Securities Technology
        • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom
        • J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate
        • BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining
        • J.P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance
      • Analyst Meeting: CXW, CREE
      Economic:
      • US: New home sales (Jan), Fed Speakers Bullard
    Tuesday 27-Feb:
      Corporate:
        Earnings:
        • Pre-open: AMT, AZO, CRI, DISCA, ENDP, ESV, EV, IPI, LL, M, MNK, PRGO, SAH, TOL, VAC, VSI,
        • Post-close: ATUS, APEI, EOG, DEPO, BWXT, BBG, CPE, BGFV, ALB, CYH, ESRX, ETSY, FTR, HEI, HTZ, IMAX, JAZZ, LYV, MTZ, NBR, OAS, PCLN, PZZA, RP, RRC, SQ, SUPN, TSRO, VEEV, WDAY,
        Brokerage Conferences:
        • KeyBank Capital Markets Emerging Technology
        • J.P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance
        • Barclays MLP
        • J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate
        • JMP Securities Technology
        • BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining
        • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom
      • Analyst Meeting: FTNT, JPM, LH, MINI, MSI
      Economic:
      • US: Advance Goods trade (Jan), Durable Goods (Jan), FHFA case-shiller home index
      • Europe: Euro-zone M3 money Supply (Jan), Confidence numbers (Feb), German HICP (Feb-flash)
    Wednesday 28-Feb:
      Corporate:
        Earnings:
        • Pre-open: ADI, CHS, HZNP, LOW, ODP, RDC, SSYS, SYNH, TJX, TTI,
        • Post-close: BOX, CRM, DDD, GEF, HABT, HK, LB, LQ, MNST, MYL, QEP, SBOW, UHS,
        Brokerage Conferences:
        • J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate
        • Simmons & Company International Energy
        • J.P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance
        • Barclays MLP
        • Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture and Chemicals
        • KeyBank Capital Markets Emerging Technology
        • BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining
        • Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities
        • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom
        • Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Cards, Payments & Financial Technology
      • Analyst Meeting: HON, HTBX, MCO, REPH, WTR
      • PDUFA: SRNE
      Economic:
      • US: Chicago PMI (Feb), GDP (Q4-2nd), Pending home sales (Jan)
      • Europe: German unemployment (Feb), Euro-zone CPI (Feb), Core CPI (Feb), UK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
      • Asia: Japan industrial production (Jan), Retail Sales (Jan), Shipments (Jan)
    Thursday 01-Mar:
      Corporate:
        Earnings:
        • Pre-open: AMC, AMCX, BBY, BKS, CNQ.CN, KSS, PDCO, PF, TGNA, VET.CN,
        • Post-close: GPS, JWN, NTNX, PSTG, SPLK, STRA, SWN, VMW,
        Brokerage Conferences:
        • Simmons & Company International Energy
        • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom
        • Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture and Chemicals
        • Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities
        • Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Cards, Payments & Financial
      • Analyst Meeting: GPN, CSX, ZION, IRBT, FEYE, GIL.CN, MCHP
      Economic:
      • US: PCE index (Jan), Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb), Construction spending (Jan), Personal income / spending (Jan)
      • Europe: Euro-zone PMI (Feb), Unemplyment rate (Jan), Germany Markit PMI (Feb); UK M4 money supply (Jan)
      • Asia: China Caixin PMI manufacturing (Feb), Japan CPI Tokyo; Markit JMMA PMI (Feb)
    Friday 02-Mar:
      Corporate:
        Earnings:
        • Pre-open: FL, JCP
      • Brokerage Conferences:
      • Analyst Meeting: GRA, DOOR
      • PDUFA: OTIC
      Economic:
      • US: Michigan Sentiment (Feb)
      • Europe: Eurozone PPI (Jan), Germany Import price (Jan)
 


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Occasionally, an earnings report date could change, or could be incorrect. We rely on various sources including Street Account, Factset, and Bloomberg to compile this report.    

 

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