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9/5/18
Thomas Thornton

Social Anxiety

Today Facebook and Twitter executives are in Washington in front of Congress as government leaders want to understand what happened during the election. Google passed on sending someone.   It's really a worthless exercise as these companies knew exactly what was happening and they did nothing about it.  I do believe they censor some people and they have that right since these are not public utilities.  Maybe that's not correct yet they have a lot of ways they can manipulate searches and feed what they want you to see as they make more money that way.  The backlash from consumers however will continue as they are waking up to the fact that everything they say, who they know, what they like, what they look at is an incredible invasion of privacy, even if they surrendered their privacy when they signed up.  Social networks and search engines are not going away but expect the government to step up and set new regulations and possibly break up one of the companies.  This debate is just starting...

Cutting it short today.  Have a lot of website development meetings as we are getting closer to launching our new site next week.  As a reminder if you are getting this note from a friend, it will soon require a password to access.  To sign up and to support Hedge Fund Telemetry click here



  • US Markets - Sentiment remains elevated, starting to see slight turn lower after DeMark signals on top
  • Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Sold AMAT long and short FB again
  • Goldman Sachs Bull Bear Market Risk Indicator - It's pretty high
  • Peak Bezos and Amazon?
  • Consumer Staples Top 5 weights - I like them long
  • Freeport McMorRan - Potential long idea that is exhausted on the downside
  • Currency Update - USD back to 50 day within tight range
  • European Market Update - Continue to avoid as Europe trades terrible
  • Global Market Update - Continued weakness
  • Crude Update - Make or break question from yesterday is now answered with it breaking
  • Gold Miners Update Downside DeMark Countdown exhaustion but I'm still waiting for a turn
  • Bond Update - 2/10 spread steepening but for how long?
  • DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600

US Markets


Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 74%


SPX daily slight turn but a lot more downside work to do to change the trend


Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 74%


NDX Index price flip lower


Dow Jones Industrial Average


IWM Russell 2000 turning too just a little

 
Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas


Trade Ideas - removed AMAT long (chips look weak), Added FB short 2.5%,

 
Goldman Sachs Bull Bear Market Risk Indicator


This is pretty high.  

 
Peak Bezos and Amazon?


Jeff Bezos the richest man in the world on Forbes 2018


It's just staggering how much money he is worth


But when he was named Time Magazine Person of the Year it was the week of the top for Amazon after a 3200% gain and the next two years saw Amazon drop by 95%.  


Amazon is turning a little lower and it's the first time in months there is a 1% decline

 
Consumer Staples Top 5 Weights


Yesterday I bought back Consumer Staples ETF and Coke.  Here is the custom chart of the top 5 XLP weights.  I like this sector long

 
Social Anxiety


FB is nearly making a 6 month closing low.  A lot of people will sell this with a few more days of weakness


Twitter bounced and is now trading lower and that's after the big drop after earnings.  This should work lower and under 30 is where stops will trigger


Google nearly at the wave 3 downside price objective

 
Freeport- McMoRan


FCX might be one to start nibbling on as a long

 
Currencies


US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 53%


US Dollar Index couldn't follow through


Euro bullish sentiment is at 45%


Euro Spot bouncing a little today


Yuan still in a tight range

 
European Markets


Euro Stoxx 50 just looks terrible and some of the contagion from Emerging Markets will hit Europe first and then the US


German DAX ditto


UK FTSE 100 4 month low

 
Global Markets


Bloomberg World Index continues lower


EEM Emerging Markets ETF lower but not a new low

 
Crude Update


Crude bullish sentiment is at 82% still extreme but off the highs of 90% a few days ago


Crude was at make or break and decided to turn lower after the green Setup 9

 
Gold Miners Update


Gold Miners with another downside red Countdown 13.  I'm holding off on buying

 
Bond Update


Bond bullish sentiment is at 70%


10 year yield


2/10 yield curve turning but for how long before flattening again?

 
DEMARK SCREENS - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals

Daily/Weekly DeMark upside/downside exhaustion signals (Sequential) weekly updated on Monday's and monthly on the first day of the new month.  Price flips occur when a stock closes higher/lower than four previous closes and increases conviction of a price turn.

The upside 13's are sell signals and downside 13's are buy signals.  Price flip's are confirmation signals that increases potential for a price trend change. For example, if you are long a stock and there is an upside 13, you will want to take cautious action by selling down or out of a position.  If initiating a short sale with the upside 13's, we tend to start with a 1/2 size and add with the downside price flip.  The opposite is true for when there are downside 13's.  Take a 1/2 size position and add with the upside price flip.  The DeMark Indicators are designed to assist the user with buying into weakness and selling into strength to anticipate trend exhaustion. Selling into a rally and buying into a decline often afford the opportunity to exit a trade without too serious a loss if wrong.

S&P 1500 Universe:
DAILY UPSIDE 13:   BELFB, CBSH, LOW, LTC, MED, RSG, WCN
DAILY DOWNSIDE 13:   CFR, F, FCX, GCI, NFX


DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN:   AMGN, AMT, BLL, CDNS, COR, CRS, EQR, HES, IDXX, LLL, LTC, TMO
DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP:   RRGB, UA, WTFC

Updated: 9/4/18
WEEKLY UPSIDE 13:   AWR, CA, DHR, DRI, FOR, GRMN, LLL, MA, MANH, NDSN, NFLX, PTC, SHOO, SIVB, STI, TDC, TXRH, WRLD
WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13:   CHS

Updated: 9/4/18
MONTHLY UPSIDE 13:    AFG, AJG, AMD, CBT, CECO, EIG, IR, MAA, MRCY, MSA, MSFT, NSC, ORI, ROK, TDY, TTWO, UNT, UNP, WCG, WTR
MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13:    FTR, RRD, SMCI, SSI

Euro Stoxx 600 Universe:
DAILY UPSIDE 13:   REP SM
DAILY DOWNSIDE 13:  INDV LN, ITX SM, ORA FP, OSR GR

DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN:   DSY FP, HEXAB SS, LISN SW, NIBEB SS, NZYMB DC, ORNBV FH, SKAB SS
DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP:   NONE

Updated: 9/4/18

WEEKLY UPSIDE 13:  CBG LN, DSY FP, FGR FP, SECUB SS, SOBI SS
WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13NONE

Updated: 9/4/18
MONTHLY UPSIDE 13:     ACKB BB, GALP PL, IPN FP, KOMB CP, MTX GR, UCB BB
MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13:  ALPHA GA, BARC LN, TL5 SM




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