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Yesterday after the Consumer Confidence numbers were released President Trump highlighted consumer confidence is as high as November 2000.  With consumer confidence hitting previous highs and the unemployment rate at historically low levels, am asking if this is as good as it gets?  I ran some charts with the DeMark Indicators on the Consumer Confidence numbers and the results might surprise you.  

The equity market indexes continues to rip higher and as someone who has had a cautious to bearish bias, it doesn't feel good.  The one regret I have had is that I have not embraced the mega cap tech stocks - notably Amazon.  I was right on Facebook and Netflix but wrong on Amazon.  Earlier today Morgan Stanley upped their price target to $2500.  When the stock opened at 1950 I was stopped out of my short.  (all stocks have a 10% stop loss level at inception).  Amazon also has both the DeMark Sequential and Combo upside exhaustion signals in the past couple days.  One of my old PM's would often would say that the stop levels were probably the best place to be initiating a trade.  I will find a place to reengage but a few days off from this one seems healthy.

I've had a few people ask why there isn't a down turn after the recent upside exhaustion signals seen in the past week on all of the major indexes.  Rule of thumb is that after an exhaustion signal a price reversal is expected within 10-12 days.  Back in January, there were upside exhaustion signals and price lifted higher for a few days before a price reversal of 10%.   With lack of downside liquidity, extreme sentiment readings, lack of short interest, and narrow attribution of the mega big caps doing the heavy lifting, there is a real risk ahead.  

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• US Markets - Sentiment extreme, Upside exhaustion signals but potential scenario for SPX to go higher
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - AMZN stopped
  
• Consumer Confidence - As good as it gets?
  
• Erlanger Type 4's are still powering the market higher
  
• Fire Eye Update
  
• IBB Biotech Update
  
• Tiffany and Costco Update
  
• Amazon and Google Update
  
• Currency Update - Watch the Yuan as it dropped last night
  
• European Market Update - Still like Euro Stoxx 50 long
  
• Global Market Update - Added Australia and Canada
  
• Asian Market Update - Nikkei upside exhaustion today
  
• Crude Update - Extreme sentiment but crude remains bid
  
• Gold Update - No thrust yet
  
• Bond Update - 10 year still in tight range
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 75%

SPX daily now has some possibility of a continuation with a new secondary upside red Countdown.  A reversal down in the coming days has to happen or else we could see this continue to 13.  We saw secondary upside exhaustion Countdowns in January too.

Equal Weight S&P ETF with Combo 13

Value Line has a green Setup 9.  

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 77%.  Pardon the formatting issue with price.  Our new charts coming out next week will be much better

NDX Index

NDX Attribution today shows AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL attributing more than have the gains.  When these go down the narrow attribution will happen and that will be felt.  

Dow Jones Industrial Average a bit of an overthrow similar to January

IWM Russell 2000 with a Combo 13 today

Trade Ideas - stopped on AMZN.  No other changes.  

Monthly Consumer Confidence has some upside Countdown 13's as seen near tops.  

Quarterly has a pink Combo but on quarter 11 of 13 with red Sequential Countdown.  

The purple highlighted sectors are Type 4's from Erlanger Research.  These are stocks that have very little short interest.  When there is little short interest the risk of a "long squeeze" is quite possible.  

When Type 4's hit 10% the risk in the market is higher.  

FEYE still looks good and I like this on the long side.  

FEYE is now becoming a crowded short with short intensity at 86%.  This is the opposite of the Type 4's as this is a Type 1 short squeeze candidate.  

IBB nearing upside exhaustion.  

Tiffany is now reversing down.  I expect more retailers to start to come back to earth.  

Costco went up after a not so great report and could start to come back down now

Just unreal how strong this stock has been and with both Sequential and Combo upside exhaustion signals in play, we should see a reversal soon.  Also this is a perfect Type 4 stock with very very little short interest.  

Google is getting close to upside exhaution

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 55% and down from 96% recent peak

US Dollar Index

Euro bullish sentiment is at 50%

Euro Spot

Yuan dropped last night and if this continues this could be a catalyst for selling around the world

Euro Stoxx 50 still ok as a long

Bloomberg World Index still so far from January highs.  

EEM Emerging Markets ETF holding the 50 day

Australia ASX 200 looks higher

Canada TSX with a Sequential Countdown 13

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 72%

Nikkei upside exhaustion today

India Nifty 50 Index no changes

Crude bullish sentiment is at 82% and remains in the extreme zone

Crude up again today

Gold bullish sentiment is at 36%

Gold still lacking thrust

Bond bullish sentiment is at 67%

Still in a tight range

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