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8/24/18
Thomas Thornton
Top Overnight News

  • S&P futures up 0.2% with US equities on track for a mixed performance this week with defensive equities giving back some recent strength. Asian equities mixed overnight. Japan outperformed. European equities higher. Treasuries weaker across the curve. Dollar firmer vs yen, but lagging vs euro and sterling. Some focus on Aussie rebound. Gold up 0.4% and on track to snap a six-week losing streak. WTI crude up over 1%. Copper up 0.8%.
  • No breakthroughs in latest trade talks between US and China, though not a surprise. Reports also discussed expectations for trade tensions to remain elevated. NAFTA headlines have been better, though no "handshake" agreement between US and Mexico and talks to spill into next week. China injected $22B of liquidity into financial system and resumed use of counter-cyclical factor in currency fixing (helping yuan). Japanese inflation remained benign in July. Scott Morrison new prime minister in Australia following Turnbull ouster. 6th PM in 11 years.  
  • Waiting game for Fed Chair Powell’s speech this morning in Jackson Hole. However, he's expected to "stick to script" in order not to influence near-term monetary policy expectations or shift debate surrounding key inputs such as neutral rate of interest and natural rate of unemployment. In addition, Powell not expected to address recent criticism from President Trump. Some thoughts reaction could lean hawkish if Powell continues to downplay balance sheet normalization spillover effects.
  • GPS hit by weaker Q2 Gap brand comps -7%. ROST beat and raised, but cost pressures an overhang- 4.5%. ADSK boosted better ARR growth and subscriptions +10%. HPQ PC sales a standout, but Printing margins disappointed -3% . VMW results well reviewed, though bookings miss a headwind-2.5%. INTU CEO to step down-1%.
  • Outsized attention in Europe on report claiming that US President Trump offered to help Italy finance its public debt next year in a meeting with Italian PM Conte at the end of July.
  • UK Chancellor Hammond launched a new attack on Tory colleagues last night by warning that a no-deal Brexit would significantly damage the economy. Added Hammond dismissed claims of a Brexit dividend, speaking after Brexit minister Raab, had insisted that leaving without an agreement would deliver positive "opportunities"
  • US macro continues to soften; yesterday’s PMI, KC Fed and New Home Sales misses pushed the Citi Economic Surprise Index to fresh YTD lows.  I looks at this as a sentiment read that economists are overly bullish on the data and not really a market moving factor.

Market Snapshot
US Economic Reports Today
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