First Call - Hedge Fund Telemetry

S&P futures little changed after index finished higher for a fifth straight week last week. Asian markets mixed overnight. China remained under pressure, unable to get any help from Yuan bounce. European equities mostly higher. Treasuries unchanged to slightly weaker at front end. Dollar firmer on the major crosses. Sterling weakness seems to be big story in FX. Gold down 0.5% after finishing lower for a fourth straight week last week. WTI crude up nearly 1.5%.
Fairly quiet weekend from a headline perspective. Nothing new surrounding the major themes. Trade tensions with China remain elevated, but longstanding skepticism of full-blown trade war supported by signs of progress elsewhere. Strong earnings a tailwind for sentiment, though still some debate about peak growth/margins. Shift from QE to QT an overhang, but central banks moving slowly. Market still does not really care about all the drama surrounding Trump.
Pretty uneventful in terms of macro. Only piece of data was softer German factory orders for June -4% vs expected -0.5%. In the news I'm reading: Reuters discussed the policy shift at the BoJ. WSJ had the latest on deficit concerns, while Reuters pointed out Treasuries holding up in the face of supply pressures. Another WSJ article discussed favorable earnings backdrop and efforts to pass along tariff hit in the form of higher prices.
Brexit drama continues to build, as one of Theresa May’s cabinet ministers said there’s now a 60% chance of a "no-deal" with Europe. This pushing the Pound to fresh 11 month lows vs. the dollar
Sentiment building that "Trade Wars" are here for good; overnight Trump tweeted tariffs are working "better than anyone ever anticipated", and that the US is winning/China is losing.
Keep an eye on Treasury auctions, as $100B in short dated paper is sold today. And Bloomberg noting this week’s auctions of 3/10/30 year bonds is the largest sale since 2010 ($78B worth).
Friday’s NFP miss pushing the US Citi Economic Surprise Index to new 10 month lows

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