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As many of you know, I am an avid cyclist.  I raced throughout my life (from 11 years old) and I was pretty good but never good enough to take it to the professional level.  It takes an amazing amount of dedication, sacrifice, and toughness to be a professional cyclist.  When I raced I was what is known as a "domestique" working for the designated team leader, blocking the wind up front, getting water bottles etc.  I also was a domestique when I worked  at my old hedge fund.  I got in well before the portfolio managers and analysts arrived and prepared for the day by putting an email similar to this note out to them.  I was the one who made the calls to every sell side desk and had 300 people on a IM list whenever we needed to know anything important.  Despite is being mostly a selfless job, I loved doing it everyday.  

An unusual thing happened at this years Tour de France.  A domestique won. A designated team leader has always won in the last 50+ years.  Geraint Thomas rides on Team Sky (the NY Yankees of cycling) and he's very good but he's a domestique for Chris Froome who has won 4 other Tour de France titles along with Tour of Italy and Spain.  Geraint Thomas is from Wales and is an everyday guy you'd want to hang out with and have a few beers with a pub.  This was his 12th Tour and the first one he finished 2nd to last and many of them he's had some bad luck with crashes. The plan was for him to work for Chris and they would win as a team but Geraint was in great form and Sky used both of them against the rivals.  Have Geraint wear down the rivals while Chris can takeover later in the race. Geraint however, didn't just wear down the rivals but he got stronger and kept the leaders yellow jersey.  A domestique won!   A guy, who everyone loves and no one could say a bad word about took the biggest prize.  

On occasion, I'd get a big call right for my firm and it was an incredible feeling.  That feeling was always short lived as you are only as good as your last call and the pressure never ended.  I'm savoring Geraint Thomas' unlikely victory as it's a victory for all of us domestiques no matter if it's in cycling or in managing a portfolio or trading.  It proves anything is possible if you work hard, stay disciplined and you get a little luck on your side.   

A lot going on in the markets and sorry for yesterday's missed note.  Internet service is back in order.  It's the end of the month and Apple reports earnings later today.  This is a big deal as it is the largest weight in the S&P and Nasdaq 100.  After last quarter it was Apple that really propelled the markets higher as it was a risk on type of report followed by Buffett disclosing an even larger stake.  Apple is a product driven company and they have a lack hot must-have phones.  There are rumors the next gen phones are running late too.  Services has been strong and it's likely the Fortnite phenomenon will benefit Apple.  I've seen some of my friends kids play the game and it is as addictive as crack.  If Apple's report is good enough it will be bought saving the market but if this fades, the tech pullback will continue with more volatility.  The implied move tomorrow after the report is 4.3%.  A lot on today's note, have a great day and thank you for your support.

• US Markets - Sentiment, Daily and 60 minute tactical views - Positioning with COT data too
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - No changes but I might exit FDX later today
  
• Apple Setup ahead of earnings
  
• Semiconductor Update
  
• Financials Running out of gas?
  
• Amazon Update
  
• Currency Update - Range bound for now and COT data is showing changes in positioning
  
• European Market Update - Europe vs US looks better
  
• Global Market Update - Detailed look at top 5 EEM stocks
  
• Asian Market Update - Nikkei stalled, India has a little more upside and I would sell into this level
  
• Crude Update - Stalling out with 90% extreme bullish sentiment and COT data showing continued bullish positioning
  
• Gold Update - No real changes except for a pink Combo 13 today
  
• Bond Update - Watch for a continuation lower on the US 10 year yield.  
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 68% down from a recent high of 85% where it was in the extreme zone

SPX daily holding the 2800 level for now.  The price flip down (green 2) needs to be watched for continuation

COT data shows speculators are still setup very long

SPX 60 minute tactical time frame peaked and could be starting 5 down waves

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 55% down from a recent peak of 77%

NDX Index is at the 50 day moving average and below could get sloppy.  I believe it will break

From Morgan Stanley Prime Broker Data - Monday was a 3rd consecutive day of Tech and Momentum weakness.  We saw further evidence of L/S funds trying to hedge exposure to Tech as Equity L/S funds adding ETF/basket shorts drove the overall sell skew.  However, Tech longs were added yesterday and single-name Tech flows had a slight overall skew towards net buying for the first time in 9 days.  The net buying yest in Tech was led by Quant funds.  This says to me people have scrambled to hedge while ETF flows have been sold in the last 2 months.  A little oversold and if Apple is better, the market will respond well as these funds will unwind shorts.  

FANG + Index is at the 3rd down wave price objective and is on day 6 of 13 with a downside Countdown.  This is a severe drop and will likely get the downside 13 in the coming weeks

IWM Russell 2000 has broken the 50 day and has a downside wave 3 price objective of 159.30

Trade Ideas -  Industrials are strong today on talk that there could be tariff talks.  I am going to likely cover FDX.  It worked recently and I went back in too early.  No other changes for now

Apple has an implied move of 3.69% after earnings

Apple's short interest has gone down from 67m shares short to 42m shares short however with the lower volume the short interest ratio has increased to 2.56.  A little higher short interest ratio vs some of the other tech names that were recently hit after earnings

The daily chart has it sitting on the 50 day and it hasn't made much progress shortly after last earnings and the Buffett disclosure that he bought more stock.  

Apple weekly did have a pink Compo and it has moved sideways since

SMH Semiconductors ETF was one of the best if not the best sector ETF's last year but this year it has chopped around and is stuck at the 50 day moving average.  Short below 105 and buy above 110

XLF Financials ETF has had a nice run off the June lows but with the green Setup 9 a pullback is likely.  How far at this point is unknown but if the 10 year starts to rally then this will fade.  

KRE Regional Banks looks much worse and is on day 6 of 13 with a downside Countdown.  From what I hear from my friends who are financials traders the concerns revolve around CRE risks

Amazon daily finally rolled over and still has room on the downside to the 50 day.  I am not covering my short but might put a stop at cost 1795 level

Amazon weekly had both upside red Sequential and pink Combo upside exhaustion signals which historically have worked well.  In the past few years the pullbacks have been nominal yet I have to believe this one has much more downside ahead

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 76% and remains elevated

COT data shows speculators starting to embrace a long USD.   

US Dollar Index remains in a range for now.  

Euro bullish sentiment is at 42%

Euro Spot did get a downside red Sequential 13 and now just needs to move above 1.175 to turn up to confirm

COT data shows speculators were very very long the Euro and have tempered the long position yet are not set up short.  Will the USD breakout to the upside and Euro to the downside to flip the positioning like what happened in 2015-2016?  Stay tuned

Chinese Yuan still at the same levels as a week ago

Euro Stoxx 50 is acting OK on the long side.   This offers an opportunity on the long side

German DAX has a chart that is similar to the Euro Stoxx 50 yet there is a downside red Countdown still there.  

Euro Stoxx 50 vs SPX Index relatively is turning up and supports Europe over US for now

Bloomberg World Index still is going sideways and has a downside red Countdown on day 8 of 13

EEM Emerging Markets ETF is at the 50 day moving average and I feel a little more sideways to down is likely before a move up

EEM Emerging Markets has some massive companies in the top 10 weights.  Tencent has been beat down hard and sentiment is very weak.  They own a lot of properties including Fortnite.  Naspers owns 30% of Tencent so adding them together as they move together equals 7% of the EEM

Tencent has a red Sequential 13 today but didn't get deeper into wave 5.  Regardless a turn up from here should be bought

Ali Baba still looks sideways to down with a downside red Sequential on day 7 of 13

Samsung is on day 11 of 13 with a red Sequential Countdown

Taiwan Semi is acts well on day 7 of 13 with a red Sequential Countdown but on day 8 of 9 with a green Setup.

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 74%

Nikkei didn't move much after the BoJ.  Stuck at the 50 day and my bet it goes lower next

India's Nifty 50 is on day 8 of 13 with a red Sequential Countdown and day 8 of 9 with a green Setup.  I would not chase this and would if long start to take some profits

Crude bullish sentiment is at 90% and very extreme

Crude is on day 5 of 13 with a red Sequential upside Countdown and day 8 of 9 with a green Setup.  The green Setup has been very good at inflection points and with sentiment at 90% I'd take some profits if long

COT data shows speculators remains very long Crude

Gold bullish sentiment is at 10% and no change to horrible sentiment

Gold futures and GLD bot got a pink Combo downside 13 exhaustion today but still needs a little more for the red Sequential downside exhaustion 13

COT data shows speculators continuing to sell Gold.  This is going to match up with the sentiment, DeMark exhaustion signals and seasonality.  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 50% and has pulled back from a recent high of 77%

US 10 Year Yields are reversing lower today after a green Setup 9.  Still range bound and a lot can happen this week with the Fed.  

COT data shows a massive short positioning with the US 10 year.  This makes me stay long bonds via TLT

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