Share

If you are having difficulty seeing this email, you can view in your browser or click here to print.

7/18/18
Thomas Thornton

Hedge Fund Telemetry Currency Focus

Currency Thoughts

Interesting times with the US Dollar bullish sentiment remaining in the extreme bullish zone with the daily DeMark Sequential on day 12 of 13.  It will take a little more upside to trigger.  Despite this the Commitment of Traders shows large Speculators just now starting to set up long.  I didn't put Gold on this report as I had it on today's Daily Note.  (spoiler alert if you haven't read it:  A few more down days needed for the latest downside exhaustion and bullish sentiment is at 9%).  Lastly I put Bitcoin on the bottom as there was recently a downside red Countdown exhaustion that perhaps will mark a bottom of sorts.  Back in December, I highlighted the upside exhaustion at the exact top.  

USD Major Crosses
US Dollar Index


US Dollar Bullish Sentiment is at 82%


Commitment of Traders report shows speculators just now starting to get long and there is a long way from being near levels seeing in the past few years


US Dollar Index remains on day 12 of 13 with the DeMark Sequential Countdown.  Keep in mind there is a green Setup on day 6 of 9 and if this completes the 9th day in a row closing above 4 previous closes then there is a possibility of another upside red Countdown beginning.  But lets see the 13 first and the reaction.  

 
EURUSD - Euro


Euro Bullish sentiment is at 39% somewhat divergent from the Euro that is near the lows.  


Commitment of Traders report shows speculators have worked down the overly bullish positioning


Euro Commitment of Traders with DeMark Indicators had a recent upside 13 with a strong reversal down


EURUSD daily is on day 10 of 13 with a downside Countdown.  Similar attributes with the green Setup with the Dollar is present

 
GBPUSD - UK Pound Sterling


British Pound bullish sentiment is at 22% and still surpressed


A new low and on day 5 of 13 with a secondary Countdown.  With PM May under fire with her Brexit plan this could move lower with that backdrop

 
Japanese Yen USDJPY


Yen bullish sentiment is at 16%


USDJPY daily has an upside pink Combo upside exhaustion and could see the Yen start to turn higher (inverted)

 
USDCAD - Canadian Dollar


Canadian bullish sentiment is at 20%


Stuck in a range 1.30/1.33   

 
USDCHF - Swiss Franc


Swiss Franc bullish sentiment is at 24% and has given back from the recent high of 45%.  Note, I often mention the 50% level as important to move above or below to determine bias.  This is a good example


USDCHF daily is in a range .993/1.00

 
AUDUSD - Australian Dollar


Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 30%


AUDUSD daily did not have much of a sustained reaction after the recent downside exhaustion signals and now there is a secondary downside Countdown with a wave 3 price objective of .71

 
NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar


New Zealand Dollar bullish sentiment is at 25%


NZDUSD daily still has a downside Countdown on day 6 of 13

 
USDNOK - Norwegian Krone


USDNOK daily let's call this a range bound and mixed DeMark picture 8.21/8.0

 
USDSEK - Swedish Krona


USDSEK daily had the green upside Countdown like the USD Index on day 6 of 9.  

 
Emerging Markets


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

USDMXN - Mexican Peso


Mexican Peso bullish sentiment is at  55% and could go a little higher to previous levels


USDMXN daily is on day 7 of 13 with a red Countdown but had a green Setup 9 so perhaps a little give back in the Peso is ahead

 
USDCNH - Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)


USDCNH daily is the most important currency as the Yuan continues to weaken and is on day 9 of 13

 
USDSGD - Singapore Dollar


USDSGD daily is on day 7 of 13 and should continue to see weakness

 
USDINR - Indian Rupee


USDINR daily might be leveling off

 
USDZAR - South African Rand


USDZAR daily bouncing off 50 day and on day 6 of 13

 
USDRUB - Russian Ruble


USDRUB daily finally has another 13 but still in a range

 
USDTRY - Turkish Lira


USDTRY daily doesn't have a defined DeMark count but could consolidate back to the 50 day but it continues in the downward direction the Lira will have a lot of alarm bells going off

 
USDRON - Romanian Leu


USDRON daily on day 11 of 13 but needs to trigger over the 8th red bar

 
USDCZK - Czech Koruna


USDCZK daily same story

 
USDHUF - Hungarian Forint


USDHUF daily ditto

 
USDPLN - Polish Zloty


USDPLN daily same except this is on day 12/13

 
USDARS - Argentine Peso


USDARS daily has not made a new low since the end of June after upside exhaustion but it might have one more dangerous push lower

 
Major Euro Crosses
EURJPY - Euro Yen


EURJPY daily stopped at wave 3 price objective although there is a red Countdown on day 4 of 13

 
EURGBP - Euro British Pound


EURGBP daily with the Pound breaking to new lows this is starting to look like the Pound is in for some more pain

 
EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc


EURCHF daily had a big reversal today and it will be worth watching if there is continuation

 
EURCAD - Euro Canadian Dollar


EURCAD daily has a mixed picture and I can't tell with any certainty the next direction

 
EURAUD - Euro Australian Dollar


EURAUD daily is in a range consolidating

 
YEN Crosses
GBPJPY - British Pound Yen


Another big reversal today and will be important to see follow through or stabilization

 
CHFJPY - Swiss Franc Yen


CHFJPY daily  is on day 12 of 13 and should reverse soon

 
AUDJPY - Australian Dollar Yen


AUDJPY daily has reversed.  Still in this range

 
Bitcoin XBTUSD


Bitcoin is not something I have ever traded but there was a downside red 13 recently on the bottom and a nice reversal.  From a standpoint strictly technical this could work higher.  Note back in December on the Hedge Fund Telemetry Daily Note, I highlighted the upside DeMark Sequential 13 which was the top.  

 

Unsubscribe me from Hedge Fund Telemetry

Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC, P.O. Box 4675, Greenwich, CT 06861, United States

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE and DISCLAIMER: This message is for the named person's use only. It may contain confidential, proprietary or legally privileged material. No confidentiality or privilege is waived by any accidental or unintentional transmission. If you receive this message in error, please immediately delete it and all copies of it from your system, destroy any hard copies and notify the sender. You must not, directly or indirectly, use, disclose, distribute, print or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended recipient. Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC. cannot guarantee the confidentiality of the material transmitted; therefore, information of a sensitive or confidential nature should not be transmitted. There is risk in trading markets.  Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC reports are based on information gathered from various sources and believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness.  The information is subject to change without notice and Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC is providing this data for informational and educational purposes and does not believe that it is sufficient to base an investment decision on. This information should not be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation of any particular security or to engage in any trading strategy. One should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine suitability of any investments.

 


Email Marketing by ActiveCampaign