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Happy Friday the 13th!  There seems to be a phobia for just about everything and Paraskevidekatriaphobia is the phobia of Friday the 13th. The word is essentially combining the Greek words for Friday and 13.  I happen to fear Friday the 13th as I've had a few rough Friday the 13th's that we can discuss over drinks someday.  The big news in the market is that the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, QQQ, and Nasdaq Futures all have upside DeMark exhaustion Sequential 13's today. This has been something I've been discussing for a few weeks and it comes after the custom FANG indexes also had upside 13's too.  Several of the big FANG names have upside exhaustion signals already - Netflix, Amazon and Facebook while Microsoft is on day 12 of 13 and Apple has a downside Countdown in progress that hasn't been effective yet.  The last two times this year the signal happened reversals of more than 10% occurred.  Last year there were multiple upside exhaustion signals that caught short lived pullbacks of 2-3%.  This morning I bought QQQ puts (first time since March) after speaking with my Goldman derives guru last night.  I bought Aug 178 for 2.75, 175 for 1.95 and Oct 170's 3.25.  Size this appropriately for your own comfort level.  ie Don't blow yourself up with a irresponsible size.  If it works you'll be happy.

The big question on people's minds is if the S&P will breakout above 2,800.  It is possible with the start of earnings season that is expecting 27% growth in earnings.  Last quarter extremely strong earnings growth was equally anticipated and most stocks that beat numbers dropped and those that missed were hit quite hard.  Today was the kickoff for earnings with a few big bank earnings coming in from my financials traders "enough but no blowouts" and "Well's still has most issues."  The reaction has been mixed with all of them down early with JPM bouncing back into the green and Citi and Wells down from 1.75%-2.5% inline with the implied move.  

The concern I have for the overall market is that FANG mega caps are quite extended going into earnings thus the bar is very high and maybe too high.  Netflix reports Monday and the stock has sold off a little ahead with a downgrade yesterday and recall last quarter people were tripping over themselves to raise numbers and upgrade the stock.  Back in 2007 when Cramer's Four Horsemen of Tech were capturing all of the attribution, one by one they started to fall.  Blackberry was the first, then the others Amazon, Apple, and Google.  I strongly believe these stocks could be making multi year highs currently and a couple might be making permanent highs.  Enjoy the rest of your Friday the 13th and of course the weekend.  

Notable:

• US Markets - Sentiment is in the elevated zone, Nasdaq upside 13's in sync is telling
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Doubled up AMZN short to 5%
  
• Europe - Still sluggish
  
• Currencies - Dollar Index near exhaustion while UUP ETF does have a 13 exhaustion today
  
• Asian Markets - FXI just going nowhere
  
• Financials Update - Still have downside Countdowns in play
  
• Crude Update - A look at DeMark Trend Factor levels
  
• Gold Update - Def not acting great but seasonality should kick in
  
• Microsoft - On day 12 of 13 with an upside Countdown
  
• Consumer Discretionary - Nearly exhausted on the upside
  
• Amazon and Google
  
• Bond Update - Near exhaustion on TLT
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 70%

SPY and SPX are at resistance levels and wave 5 price objectives.  My gut says this is a false breakout with the NDX upside 13

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 70% too

Nasdaq Futs 13 and 9.

Nasdaq Composite same

QQQ same and I stretched this out to show some of 2017 and how the signals caught the shallow dips.  This is going to be interesting.  

Trade Ideas - Doubled up AMZN to a 5% max size. Not reflected on the sheet below

Euro Stoxx 50 sluggish with a downside red Sequential Countdown on day 2 of 13 while under the 50 day.

DAX same story and look how today it faded from highs.  

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 87% and this is in extreme territory.

US Dollar Index is on day 12 of 13 but keep in mind the 13th bar has to occur higher than the 8th day's close so higher before lower.   And my feeling at this point is that we see 93 and perhaps get stuck in a range but not going back to under 90.  

Euro bullish sentiment is at 36% and divergent from the USD as sentiment is showing more strength vs the price

Euro spot is on day 10 of 13.  

UUP US Dollar ETF is worth noting it does have an upside Sequential 13 Countdown today

Hong Kong China ETF FXI stuck in no man's land

XLF Fins ETF is a mess.  I'm staying short with the downside red Countdown on day 6 of 13.  

Wells Fargo was the best performing bank in the top 10 weights in the past quarter yet they reported another quarter with some less than encouraging results.

JPMorgan is arguably the best house on the worst street in financials yet there is still a downside Countdown so I'll stay short.  

Citi is on day 11 of 13 with its Countdown

KRE Regional Banks ETF is right at support and is on day 2 of 13 with a downside wave 3 price objective of 58

Crude bullish sentiment is at 69% and down from the high 80's a few days ago

WTI Crude is holding the 70 level but has a green Setup on day 7 of 9 and I expect that 9 to happen on Tuesday.  Also one of Tom DeMark's indicators call Trend Factor which sets upside projected levels really was good with multiple levels where there was pullbacks seen

Gold bullish sentiment is at 17% and really needs to get above 30% to show signs of life

GLD hasn't been acting as planned since I'm long and now there is a secondary Countdown on day 5 of 13.  NOT what I wanted to see however I am going to stay with it due to the positive seasonal factor.

Gold Futures on day 6 of 13

Seasonax is very bullish on gold due to this chart.  It's pretty compelling

Microsoft is on day 12 of 13 with the red Sequential Countdown.  Considering this is one of the top attributes in the markets we have to be careful buying into a breakout with the 13 looming

XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF has a pink Combo 13 and is on day 11 of 13 with the red Sequential Countdown (no shown)  Amazon is such a massive weight here so when that comes back down to earth so will this one.  

I was a little early yesterday with my first 2.5% short position 1775.  I added more at 1814 today and expect a pullback soon.  By the way, the Trump Administration just hired a very powerful anti trust advocate to the Justice Department.  One tweet is all it will take...

Google does not have a current Countdown and is moving up nicely.  Again, with NDX upside 13 I wouldn't chase this one... I'd trim some if you're long.  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 71%

TLT Bond ETF will fall short of the upside wave 3 price objective it seems as soon as Monday an upside Countdown 13. could happen.  Since this is the 3rd wave up, expect a short lived shallow wave 4 pullback followed by an higher wave 5 move.  

2/10 yield curve continues to flatten.  

US 10 year yield is on day 10 of 13 and I expect a break under 2.80

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