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7/9/18
Thomas Thornton

Bottom Feeders

I take a few days off and the markets decided to rip higher.  So typical!   Both Thursday and Friday, as I look back, were exceptionally low volume, more a sign of complacency with a lack of selling, rather than urgency to buy. Leading the move were our old friends, the mega cap tech/consumer FANG's.  Biotech helped the Nasdaq 100 too with some positive Biogen news.  Today the leading sectors are showing up towards the bottom of my PPO Monitor (Percentage Price Oscillator) - Financials, Energy, Transports, Industrials sectors.  The US Dollar has consolidated from the recent highs when bullish sentiment reached 94% and that has helped some of the big cap banks and export companies. Banks are set to start off earnings season on Friday and considering they all sold off after earnings last quarter, today's action seems like a scramble to get long since the short interest with the large cap banks is quite low.  And all of this is remarkable with the trade war starting last week.  Again, my view is that there is a large abundance of complacency with investors as the big bad event seemingly has passed.  Buyers tend to buy higher and sellers sell lower.   Status quo.

I've been showing a lot of charts with the FANG custom indexes and NDX with potential for a little more upside before there are new daily upside exhaustion signals.  Below I go through the charts that are showing up with new signals are some that are very close.  

Notable:

  • US Markets - Sentiment bounced as did the indexes.  
  • Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - No changes today
  • PPO Monitor - Signs of bottom feeding
  • Credit Spread Update - Weekly chart shows widening
  • Currencies - Extreme sentiment has been worked off and now let's see if the USD continues higher
  • Asian Markets - Finally a bounce with the stronger Yuan
  • European Markets - Faded off early gains worth noting
  • FANG's and Tech nearing upside exhaustion signals
  • Financials Update - Choppy action ahead of earnings starting Friday morning
  • Bond Update - Still long bonds despite a stall
  • DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600 WEEKLY EXHAUSTION SIGNALS UPDATED AND NOTE THE LARGE NUMBER OF US UPSIDE EXHAUSTION SIGNALS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS

US Markets


Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 60% up from 52% the previous day


SPY is holding Friday's high with the rotation into the bottom sectors.  There is resistance at 278.73 and support at 270.  


Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 60% too


QQQ has had the pending upside Countdown and it's on day 10 of 13.  If a new high can occur the recent downside wave will cancel and the upside wave will revert back to wave 5.  


IWM has a secondary upside Countdown on day 8 of 13 and if a new high is not achieved the downside wave 3 price objective of 159.30 will remain


The Dow still is consolidating sideways.  There is a downside Countdown on day 4 of 13 and an upside green Setup on day 6 of 9.  If the 9th consecutive day closing higher than 4 previous closes happens then the red Countdown will be cancelled.   

 
Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas


Trade Ideas - No changes today.  PNL slipping a little however it's contained.  

 
PPO Monitor


The PPO Monitor is showing clearly how the lower tier sectors are strongest today while the ones that have risen to the top recently are lagging.  Some hit new 20 day highs (green numbers below HIGH) and have faded.  Notice the strong ones on the lower tier have not hit 20 day highs yet.  

 
Credit Spreads - Update


The US Corporate High Yield / US 10 year spread has continued to widen without much of a peep from anyone... yet.  When this widens there is higher risk.  (goes up on this chart)

 
Currencies


US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 71% and has dropped from the recent extreme reading of 94%.  I felt the US Dollar would consolidate when it was at those extreme levels and then continue higher.  


US Dollar Index is slightly positive today after consolidating the extreme sentiment.  Note when the 13's hit the sentiment was also at 94%


Euro bullish sentiment is at 46% and continues higher.  


Euro Spot price is slightly higher and could even make a move to the wave 3 upside price objective of 1.1961


British Pound was up and then reversed when Boris Johnson resigned from the government.  There is a downside wave 5 price objective of 1.2865 now

 
Asian Markets


Nikkei bounced last night after the green Setup 9.  I continue to believe this is range bound


Shanghai also bounced yet there still is  red downside Countdown on day 5 of 13.  I would not doubt a continuation with the Yuan bouncing too


Hong Kong also bounced but not as much.  There is a downside Countdown pending on day 7 of 13

 
European Markets


German DAX was up earlier but faded most of the gains today.  It is right as the old support so it will be important to watch the next few days


Italy is still the weakest of all the European markets and I wanted to show over a year period to highlight the sideways nature of this index.  A break of 21,000 and the downside wave 3 price objective of 19,377 will come into play


France also reversed today's gain but closed positive.  It really has been text book with the downside wave 3 price ojective high and now a new wave 5 downside price objective of 5119.  


Euro Stoxx 50 also reversed the early gains today


UK has been going sideways and is just under the 50 day moving average.  

 
FANG's and Tech nearing upside exhaustion


FANG custom index is on day 12 of 13


FAANG custom index (with AAPL) also on day 12 of 13


AAPL has gained in the last couple days yet still has a downside Countdown on day 4 of 13.  


AMZN is on day 10 of 13 with its upside Countdown


MSFT is on day 9 of 13 with its upside Countdown


NFLX did get the upside red 13 Countdown


NVDA looks like it is stalling here at the 50 day


FB also has the upside exhaustion 13 now in play


TWTR is breaking down 9% today and will remain on the Trade Ideas sheet as a 5% sized short

 
Financials Update


XLF Financials ETF is having a strong day and held the recent support.  I will stay short this into the earnings reports believing the downside after earnings will happen again.  

 
Bonds


Bond bullish sentiment is at 77% and a new high for this cycle


US 10 Year Yield is up a little today but there still is a downside Countdown on day 9 of 13


TLT Bond ETF still has an upside Countdown on day 9 of 13.  


LQD Investment Grade ETF has bounced after the recent downside exhaustion

 
DEMARK SCREENS - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals

Daily/Weekly DeMark upside/downside exhaustion signals (Sequential) weekly updated on Monday's and monthly on the first day of the new month.  Price flips occur when a stock closes higher/lower than four previous closes and increases conviction of a price turn.

The upside 13's are sell signals and downside 13's are buy signals.  Price flip's are confirmation signals that increases potential for a price trend change. For example, if you are long a stock and there is an upside 13, you will want to take cautious action by selling down or out of a position.  If initiating a short sale with the upside 13's, we tend to start with a 1/2 size and add with the downside price flip.  The opposite is true for when there are downside 13's.  Take a 1/2 size position and add with the upside price flip.  The DeMark Indicators are designed to assist the user with buying into weakness and selling into strength to anticipate trend exhaustion. Selling into a rally and buying into a decline often afford the opportunity to exit a trade without too serious a loss if wrong.

S&P 1500 Universe:
DAILY UPSIDE 13:   ADS, AMT, ARE, ATR, CRY, GTY, HES, IRM, MINI, NFLX, NOV, NTRI, OKE, PLT, PRAA, TTWO, UNT, VSH, VTR, AEGN, BCOR, CACI, FB, GOV, HIV, IPAR, KIM, MA, MATW, MTRN, MTRX, NEE, OII, QNST, RYN, SKT, SVU, SWN, SYY, TAP, TER, UBSI, VMI, AMGN, BR, EXPE, MGLN, STE, WAGE, WCG
DAILY DOWNSIDE 13:   CENX, IEX, IVZ, RE, TKR, LLL

DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN:   GEO, JAKK, UTI
DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP:   AIN, CEVA, CR, IEX, MAR, MYE, VAR, WAFD, MKTX, PZZA, UHS, WPP

Updated: 7/9/18
WEEKLY UPSIDE 13:   AES, BBY, CACI, DPZ, EAT, MGLN, MUSA, WCG
WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13:   AYI, FTR

Updated: 7/1/18
MONTHLY UPSIDE 13:    ADI, AEE, BAX, BCOR, ETFC, ICUI, ITG, MED, MOH, NEE, SMTC, THG, TTEK, TXN, VICR, VSH, WCN, WST
MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13:    TUES

Euro Stoxx 600 Universe:

DAILY UPSIDE 13:   AUTO LN, LUPE SS, REE SM, FP FP, SBRY LN, RWE GR, SRCG SW, SWMA SS, ULE LN, WKL NA
DAILY DOWNSIDE 13:  CHHI IM, PNDORA DC, TW/ LN, RMG LN

DAILY UPSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL DOWN:   AUTO LN, INCH LN, SUBC NO, TGS NO, UMI BB, DMGT LN
DAILY DOWNSIDE WITH PRICE FLIP REVERSAL UP:   AF FP, AKZA NA, CA FP, INGA NA, PAH3 VOW3 GR, FR FP, ML FP, MT NA, TEL2B SS, AENA SM, OSR GR, PSM GR, SAZ GR, WMH LN

Updated: 7/9/18

WEEKLY UPSIDE 13:  D1 GR, GALP PL
WEEKLY DOWNSIDE 13ELUXB SS, JM SS, NCCB SS, WRT1V FH

Updated: 7/1/18
MONTHLY UPSIDE 13:     BLND LN, CDI FP, CRH ID, DCC LN, DOM LN, RACE IM, REL LN, RMS FP, SXS LN, WKL NA, ZAL GR
MONTHLY DOWNSIDE 13:  BMPS IM




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