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6/29/18
Thomas Thornton

Hedge Fund Telemetry Currency Focus

Currency Thoughts


Comments above each sentiment, COT, and cross.  I am a little short on time today.  The most important ones are now on the top half and others below are not as important to many of you.  

US Dollar Index


US Dollar Bullish Sentiment is at 94% and that matches the extreme high of on 5/29.  Some give back is due


Commitment of Traders report shows speculators increasing the long exposure by 287%.  We knew this was possible


US Dollar has stalled here on the daily but still looks higher with upside Countdown on day 8 of 13.  Choppy action won't shock me with that extreme high sentiment reading

 
EURUSD - Euro


Euro Bullish sentiment is at 20%


Commitment of Traders report shows speculators dropped the long positioning by 59%


Commitment Of Traders report shows speculators with the DeMark indicators dropping right after the upside exhaustion signal.  Pretty cool


EURUSD daily chopping around down here but there still is a pending downside Countdown on day 7 of 13

 
GBPUSD - UK Pound Sterling


British Pound bullish sentiment is at 10%


GBPUSD daily did get the downside exhaustion 13 and turned up.  A bounce then lower

 
Japanese Yen USDJPY


Yen bullish sentiment is at 28%


USDJPY daily is on day 11 of 13 a little weaker expected for Yen

 
USDCAD - Canadian Dollar


Canadian bullish sentiment is at  17%


USDCAD daily is backing off this move and with CAD with low sentiment a bounce is likely

 
USDCHF - Swiss Franc


Swiss Franc bullish sentiment is at 33%


USDCHF daily should see the Swiss Franc increase.  I like it

 
AUDUSD - Australian Dollar


Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at  at 11 and remains oversold


AUDUSD daily should start to lift.  I say should but it hasn't yet enough to clear the mid June level

 
USDCNH- Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)


USDCNH Daily did get the upside 13 last night and it is in wave 3 so a back off into wave 4 then continuation of weak Yuan

 
Gold


Gold Bullish Sentiment is at 8% and that's the lowest in a year


Gold Futures Daily did get the downside 13's with the pink Combo and red Sequential - I like this long here


GLD Gold ETF Daily had the exhaustion signals a few days ago

 
XBTUSD- Bitcoin


Bitcoin Daily another new low.  This is the XBTUSD which doesn't have the weekends and I will post the 24/7 Monday.  This one actually has been better at turns.  So there you go.

 
NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar


New Zealand Dollar bullish sentiment is at 7% and that's a new low


NZDUSD daily however is breaking down and only is on day 3 of 13.  Maybe some choppy action is ahead but a 13 will happen in a sideways to down pattern.

 
USDNOK - Norwegian Krone


USDNOK daily has a wedge with breakouts at 8.21/8.09

 
USDSEK - Swedish Krona


USDSEK daily does not have a defined DeMark signal but SEK trend seems down unless 50 day breaks

 
USDDKK - Danish Krone


USDDKK daily toppy action looks like DXY but an upside red Countdown is still pending

 
Emerging Markets


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

USDMXN - Mexican Peso


Mexican Peso bullish sentiment is at 40% and increasing


USDMXN daily looks like the Peso can continue to bounce

 
USDHKD - Hong Kong Dollar


USDHKD daily no changes

 
USDSGD - Singapore Dollar


USDSGD daily with Countdown 13 today like the Yuan

 
USDINR - Indian Rupee


USDINR daily has Rupee drifting lower but I don't see a giant move ahead

 
USDZAR - South African Rand


USDZAR daily shows the USD in command

 
USDRUB - Russian Ruble


USDRUB daily no changes with this range

 
USDTRY - Turkish Lira


USDTRY daily is getting some relief after the 13's but this could be the 4th wave down and new move lower for the Lira might start soon

 
USDILS - Israeli Shekel


USDILS daily on the 12th of 13th day.  Good reaction with the last 13

 
USDRON - Romanian Leu


USDRON daily shows USD still in control

 
USDCZK - Czech Koruna


USDCZK daily same story

 
USDHUF - Hungarian Forint


USDHUF daily again same story

 
USDPLN - Polish Zloty


USDPLN daily ditto

 
USDARS - Argentine Peso


USDARS daily is concerning as it is only on day 10 of 13 and had a bad day today.  

 
Major Euro Crosses


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

EURJPY - Euro Yen


EURJPY daily range bound for now

 
EURGBP - Euro British Pound


EURGBP daily also range bound

 
EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc


EURCHF daily has downside Countdowns but not sure that will happen.  

 
EURCAD - Euro Canadian Dollar


EURCAD daily has a deeper oversold CAD so it could see higher CAD

 
EURAUD - Euro Australian Dollar


EURAUD daily is at make or break time with green Setup 9

 
YEN Crosses


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

GBPJPY - British Pound Yen


Still too early to tell

 
CHFJPY - Swiss Franc Yen


CHFJPY daily I like the Swiss Franc long vs Yen a lot

 
AUDJPY - Australian Dollar Yen


AUDJPY daily over sold but needs more work to the upside

 
USDBRL- USD Brazilian Real


USDBRL daily has ignored the 13's and has a strong trend.  I'll update on daily this coming week

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