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Hedge Fund Telemetry Currency Focus
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The pause in the USD as we expected with the recent DeMark upside exhaustion signals could now well be complete and a new leg higher has started. The upside exhaustion signals occurred in the 3rd wave of 5 higher and when upside exhaustion happens in the 3rd wave, it's followed by a short lived corrective wave 4 and thus the better signals occur in wave 5. This has caused further pain in the Emerging Markets currencies and some of the major crosses
too.
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US Dollar Bullish Sentiment is at 86% and back into the extreme zone again. It can and might stay here for as while with the upside DeMark Countdown in progress
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Commitment of Traders report shows speculators continuing to start to buy the USD. A lot of potential here
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US Dollar Index is now in wave 5 with an upside Countdown on day 6 of 13. The upside wave 5 price objective is 98
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Euro Bullish sentiment is at 13% and down from the previous day of 25%. Keep in mind the recent low was 4%
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Commitment of Traders report shows speculators actually increased long exposure last week. I've overlaid the DeMark indicators on this and I'd like to know what you think.
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EURUSD daily is at risk of breaking to new lows on day 5/13 with downside Countdown
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GBPUSD - UK Pound Sterling
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British Pound bullish sentiment is at 14% still very low but as you see it can and might stay low for a while.
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On day 6/13 with downside Countdown. Breaking 1.32 will open up further selling to 1.25 perhaps
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Yen bullish sentiment is at 21% and a new low for this cycle
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USDJPY daily has an exhaustion 13 and could see the Yen start to lift and that is not what the Japan Central Bank wants to happen
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Canadian bullish sentiment is at 10% and is in the extreme zone on the downside
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I do not see the Canandian Dollar bottoming yet without a signal
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Swiss Franc bullish sentiment is at 34% but down from 40% the previous day
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USDCHF daily is on day 12 of 13 with an upside Countdown but keep in mind for it to trigger it has to occur above the close of the 8th red bar.
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AUDUSD - Australian Dollar
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Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 10% and is deeply oversold
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AUDUSD daily is on day 11 of 13 and could exhaust on the downside early next week
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NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar
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New Zealand Dollar bullish sentiment is at 29%
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NZDUSD daily should work a little lower. Watch .688 as support
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USDNOK daily bounced off 50 day and could continue
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USDSEK daily reversed on the green Setup 9. At this time I am not certain a move over 9.00 will happen
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USDDKK daily should breakout on day 5/13
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If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know
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Mexican Peso bullish sentiment is at 9% and continues to remain in the extreme zone
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USDMXN daily is on day 3 of 13 and thus the Peso could go lower. Alternatively a wave 4 corrective move could happen and ultimately wave 5 lower.
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USDCNH - Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)
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USDCNH daily is on day 12/13. Who knows what China will do in retaliation for tariffs. Currency could become a weapon.
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USDHKD - Hong Kong Dollar
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USDHKD daily nothing to discuss here
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USDSGD - Singapore Dollar
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USDSGD daily looks to be breaking out
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USDINR daily does not have a current Countdown but has gapped 3x in the past 10 days. Sort of on the fence with this one if it can breakout
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USDZAR - South African Rand
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USDZAR daily could stall here
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USDRUB daily has been in a range and if there is a move outside of the range things could get interesting
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USDTRY daily has been watched closely and it is on day 12/13 with the latest Countdown
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USDILS daily should breakout on day 7/13
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USDRON daily has a new secondary Countdown on day 5/13. This one really moved after the ECB.
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USDCZK daily should breakout on day 5/13
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USDHUF - Hungarian Forint
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USDHUF daily has a secondary Countdown on day 6/13
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USDPLN daily has a secondary Countdown on day 5/13
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USDARS WEEKLY has seen several upside exhaustion signals to no avail which tells us this is a very strong trend happening
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If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know
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EURJPY daily should see the Euro continue lower
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EURGBP - Euro British Pound
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EURGBP daily both are under pressure
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EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc
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EURCHF daily should see the Euro trade lower
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EURCAD - Euro Canadian Dollar
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EURCAD daily should see the Euro trade lower. Keep in mind the 13 has to happen under the 8th red bar
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EURAUD - Euro Australian Dollar
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EURAUD daily is stuck here and my bet would be lower for the Euro but I need to see more ahead
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If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know
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GBPJPY - British Pound Yen
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The Pound continues to make lower highs and lower lows vs the Yen
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CHFJPY daily is right at the 50 day . I need more time to make a good call
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AUDJPY - Australian Dollar Yen
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AUDJPY daily should work lower but stay in this range
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Gold bullish sentiment is at 22%
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Gold Futures daily broke the recent range and is on day 6/13 with downside Countdown
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GLD Gold ETF daily is on day 8/13 with the downside Countdown. Wait for the 13 before you buy
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XBTUSD daily still looks lower and is on day 6/13.
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