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6/15/18
Thomas Thornton

Hedge Fund Telemetry Currency Focus

Currency Thoughts


The pause in the USD as we expected with the recent DeMark upside exhaustion signals could now well be complete and a new leg higher has started.  The upside exhaustion signals occurred in the 3rd wave of 5 higher and when upside exhaustion happens in the 3rd wave, it's followed by a short lived corrective wave 4 and thus the better signals occur in wave 5.  This has caused further pain in the Emerging Markets currencies and some of the major crosses too.  

US Dollar Index


US Dollar Bullish Sentiment is at 86% and back into the extreme zone again.  It can and might stay here for as while with the upside DeMark Countdown in progress


Commitment of Traders report shows speculators continuing to start to buy the USD.  A lot of potential here


US Dollar Index is now in wave 5 with an upside Countdown on day 6 of 13.  The upside wave 5 price objective is 98

 
EURUSD - Euro


Euro Bullish sentiment is at 13% and down from the previous day of 25%.  Keep in mind the recent low was 4%


Commitment of Traders report shows speculators actually increased long exposure last week.  I've overlaid the DeMark indicators on this and I'd like to know what you think.


EURUSD daily is at risk of breaking to new lows on day 5/13 with downside Countdown

 
GBPUSD - UK Pound Sterling


British Pound bullish sentiment is at 14% still very low but as you see it can and might stay low for a while.  


On day 6/13 with downside Countdown.  Breaking 1.32 will open up further selling to 1.25 perhaps

 
Japanese Yen USDJPY


Yen bullish sentiment is at  21% and a new low for this cycle


USDJPY daily has an exhaustion 13 and could see the Yen start to lift and that is not what the Japan Central Bank wants to happen

 
USDCAD - Canadian Dollar


Canadian bullish sentiment is at  10% and is in the extreme zone on the downside


I do not see the Canandian Dollar bottoming yet without a signal

 
USDCHF - Swiss Franc


Swiss Franc bullish sentiment is at 34% but down from 40% the previous day


USDCHF daily is on day 12 of 13 with an upside Countdown but keep in mind for it to trigger it has to occur above the close of the 8th red bar.

 
AUDUSD - Australian Dollar


Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 10% and is deeply oversold


AUDUSD daily is on day 11 of 13 and could exhaust on the downside early next week

 
NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar


New Zealand Dollar bullish sentiment is at 29%


NZDUSD daily should work a little lower.  Watch .688 as support

 
USDNOK - Norwegian Krone


USDNOK daily bounced off 50 day and could continue

 
USDSEK - Swedish Krona


USDSEK daily reversed on the green Setup 9.  At this time I am not certain a move over 9.00 will happen

 
USDDKK - Swedish Krone


USDDKK daily should breakout on day 5/13

 
Emerging Markets


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

USDMXN - Mexican Peso


Mexican Peso bullish sentiment is at 9% and continues to remain in the extreme zone


USDMXN daily is on day 3 of 13 and thus the Peso could go lower.  Alternatively a wave 4 corrective move could happen and ultimately wave 5 lower.  

 
USDCNH - Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)


USDCNH daily is on day 12/13.  Who knows what China will do in retaliation for tariffs.  Currency could become a weapon.

 
USDHKD - Hong Kong Dollar


USDHKD daily nothing to discuss here

 
USDSGD - Singapore Dollar


USDSGD daily looks to be breaking out

 
USDINR - Indian Rupee


USDINR daily does not have a current Countdown but has gapped 3x in the past 10 days.  Sort of on the fence with this one if it can breakout

 
USDZAR - South African Rand


USDZAR daily could stall here

 
USDRUB - Russian Ruble


USDRUB daily has been in a range and if there is a move outside of the range things could get interesting

 
USDTRY - Turkish Lira


USDTRY daily has been watched closely and it is on day 12/13 with the latest Countdown

 
USDILS - Israeli Shekel


USDILS daily should breakout on day 7/13

 
USDRON - Romanian Leu


USDRON daily has a new secondary Countdown on day 5/13.  This one really moved after the ECB.

 
USDCZK - Czech Koruna


USDCZK daily should breakout on day 5/13

 
USDHUF - Hungarian Forint


USDHUF daily has a secondary Countdown on day 6/13

 
USDPLN - Polish Zloty


USDPLN daily has a secondary Countdown on day 5/13

 
USDARS - Argentine Peso


USDARS WEEKLY has seen several upside exhaustion signals to no avail which tells us this is a very strong trend happening

 
Major Euro Crosses


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

EURJPY - Euro Yen


EURJPY daily should see the Euro continue lower

 
EURGBP - Euro British Pound


EURGBP daily both are under pressure

 
EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc


EURCHF daily  should see the Euro trade lower

 
EURCAD - Euro Canadian Dollar


EURCAD daily should see the Euro trade lower.  Keep in mind the 13 has to happen under the 8th red bar

 
EURAUD - Euro Australian Dollar


EURAUD daily is stuck here and my bet would be lower for the Euro but I need to see more ahead

 
YEN Crosses


If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know

GBPJPY - British Pound Yen


The Pound continues to make lower highs and lower lows vs the Yen

 
CHFJPY - Swiss Franc Yen


CHFJPY daily  is right at the 50 day .  I need more time to make a good call

 
AUDJPY - Australian Dollar Yen


AUDJPY daily should work lower but stay in this range

 
Gold


Gold bullish sentiment is at 22%


Gold Futures daily broke the recent range and is on day 6/13 with downside Countdown


GLD Gold ETF daily is on day 8/13 with the downside Countdown.  Wait for the 13 before you buy

 
Bitcoin XBTUSD


XBTUSD daily still looks lower and is on day 6/13.  

 

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