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Yesterday the Fed raised rates as expected and Jay Powell did a great job explaining the hawkish view of his Fed.  It was refreshing to hear him speak in a way that was unlike Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen.  Gone was the Princeton academic jargon and in was the clear real world conversation.  The market hated it by the way.  Today we had Mario Draghi with the ECB announcing a time table for tapering in Europe and a very dovish comment that they will not be raising rates until next summer.  They remain at 0%.  The Euro dropped on this and equity indexes in Europe moved higher.  This could be the next leg higher with the USD that I have been expecting.  Bonds have rallied and financials have dropped.  Gold is slightly up but unconvincingly.  Crude is flat.  Stock in the US are up today led by the FANG group.  The S&P is up 25bp and the NDX is up 98bp while FANG+ Index is up 185bp.  The usual suspects Netflix, Amazon, Google, Nvdia and Facebook are doing the heavy lifting. 

It's getting a little weird too.  Netflx is now worth $170 billion which is larger than Disney and Comcast by two Viacom's put together or one CBS.  Netflix is up 100% YTD and 150% in the trailing 12 months. Tesla is up again today after Elon Musk once again bought stock on the open market in the PRE market to pump up the stock price.  For a CEO to be buying stock in the pre market is flat out weird perhaps desperate is a better word.  There still are some upside DeMark Countdowns in progress and sentiment is reaching back to elevated levels again.  I can't imagine the increase in the USD to bode well for multinationals and emerging markets in the coming months.  

Lastly, I was recently at Real Vision HQ in the Cayman's and filmed a new series called "The Exchange" with Tony Greer of TGMacro and Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group.  We shared ideas on a macro and micro level from our top down perspective.  If you're not subscribed to Real Vision, you're missing out on some excellent content.  

Notable:

• US Markets - Sentiment is elevated.  Upside exhaustion signals are starting and are closer
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - stopped on AMZN, sold GE long
  
• FANG's - Annoying the hell out of me
  
• Currencies
  
• Asian Markets - Stalling or reversing.  Another couple days will tell
  
• European Markets
  
• Vanguard Total World Index and World (ex USA) look very different
  
• Gold Update
  
• XLK Tech ETF - On day 11 of 13 with upside Countdown
  
• XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF - Upside exhaustion is now in play
  
• Ellie Mae - One idea from a client. 
  
• Bond Update - TLT working today.  2/10 Yield Curve continues to flatten
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600 - SEEING A LOT MORE UPSIDE EXHAUSTION SIGNALS IN THE US
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at  70%

SPY is starting to stall with presence of upside exhaustion signals.  Combo the other day and the red Sequential is on day 11 of 13.  Tom DeMark was scheduled to be on Bloomberg today but I am guessing since yesterday's 12 on the Sequential did not stick and today's not a 13, he put it off.  Just a guess

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 72%

QQQ/NDX  has been by far the strongest index in the past several years which is due to the narrow attribution seen with the top 5 weights.  The upside Countdown is on day 5 of 13.  Some of you will probably remind me how weird it was today and God knows this could just continue for another 5%.  

The weekly of the QQQ/NDX did get the upside exhaustion 13 and 9 this week.  When I say it was the strongest index, this is a good reason.  The signals have seen only nominal pullbacks and stalling out periods.  

Micro Cap have been hot but there is now some new upside exhaustion.  There was likely some tourist type chasers that put money in this ETF and likely won't stick around long if this dips.  "Better to put it into NFLX"  - sarcasm....

IWM Russell 2000 did get the upside pink Combo and is on day 11 of 13 with the red Countdown

This is the IWM looking back 6 months.  The 13's have worked well on the upside and downside

Ned Davis Crowd Sentiment Poll is back to overbought zone although well below the crazy peak in January when it was a lot easy to sell this market.  

Trade Ideas - stopped out of AMZN -10%, sold GE long +2%.  I'm really glad I started trading my Trade Ideas from the dead lows of April and not Q1 when shorts actually worked.  (more sarcasm)  

FANG + Index did have upside exhaustion yesterday that remains in play.  A reversal should start within the next 12-15 days.  By the way, these are annoying the hell out of me.  

FANG custom index looks like the NDX on day 5 of 13.  FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL. AAPL by the way has been very absent the last week's action

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 75% off the peak high of 94%.  When it was there I said a back of in sentiment was needed before the next leg higher

DXY US Dollar Index backed off from recent peak in wave 3 and enabled wave 4 (blue number) and now there is an upside wave 5 price objective of 98.40.  There is however a downside potential wave set up with this bounce being wave 2 of 5.  If this makes a new high that downside wave pattern is cancelled

Euro spot is the opposite and if you're a Euro bull you don't want to see this make a new low.  There is also a new downside Countdown on day 4 of 13.  My expectation is this makes a new low

British Pound also looks to have a failed bounce with a downside Countdown on day 4 of 13.  This is good since I am planning a trip to the UK later in the year.  Hope to see some clients, my treat for pints!

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 72% and might be making a lower high on the recent bounce

Nikkei did get the green Setup 9 and reversed as expected

Korean Kospi had a nasty day yesterday and is approaching support again

Topix also lines up with Nikkei

Despite the bounce in European equities banks are not bouncing and still look sick

Italy is bouncing but I doubt this was the low.  

German 10 Year Yields are down today which typically is a flight to safety.  Could there be more risk ahead?  

The total global market index has upside exhaustion

Same index ex USA looks pretty weak.  

Gold bullish sentiment is at 18% and is trying to move up.  A move over 30% would get my attentiion

GLD still does not interest me on both the long and short side.  

XLK now on day 11 of 13 with the latest upside red Sequential Countdown.  On day 12 of 13 with pink Combo.

XLY more upside exhaustion after a runaway type move.  

Ellie Mae from a smart client.  They provide licences to mortgage brokers.  My client is seeing some negative signs in that business.  This has a history of large gap downs.  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 45%

TLT Bond ETF is up a little today and now is on day 2 of 13 with an upside Countdown.  I am long TLT and really would like to see a few more days like this

2/10 Yield Curve continues to flatten on a weekly chart there is a Combo 12 and an unfinished downside red Countdown.  When this steepened in 2007 the economy was moving into recession.  

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