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Hedge Fund Telemetry Weekly Currency Focus
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Hi Everyone - We put out a weekly Currency focused email and we would like to have you join us to receive all the reports we put out. Hedge Fund Telemetry focuses on market sentiment, positioning, and technical analysis utilizing the DeMark Indicators on many different markets. If you would like our DeMark Indicator primer click here. This is a very important week with many currencies at inflection points as you'll read below. This is an important week with the currency markets as sentiment readings remain in the extreme zones while the DeMark Sequential exhaustion signals should trigger on many markets. Notably the US Dollar Index is on day 12/13 and the EURUSD is on day 11/13. Thus a corrective pause is expected that will work off some of the extreme sentiment
whereas there will be a resumption the current trend direction. Some of the Emerging Market currencies continue to be very volatile while the local Governments are doing what they can to control things from getting out of hand. I had a conversation with one of the best macro hedge fund guys I'm close with over the weekend and he felt the types of moves we have seen recently says markets are on the verge of systemic breakdowns . Pretty strong opinions.
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Sentiment remains on the the extremes however the Commitment of Traders report is just starting to see a change from the overly bullish Euro positioning. There still is a lot of fuel for a much bigger unwind of the Euro. Within the next couple days the DXY and EURUSD will have the DeMark exhaustion we've been anticipating.
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US Dollar Bullish Sentiment is at 86% and above 80% is the bullish extreme zone
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Commitment of Traders report shows speculators starting to turn net long US Dollar. Thanks to Hedgeopia.com for the charts.
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US Dollar Index is on day 12/13 with the red Sequential upside Countdown
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Euro Bullish sentiment is at 10%. Under 20% is the bearish extreme zone
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Commitment of Traders report shows speculators continuing to work off the overly bullish positioning
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EURUSD daily is on day 11/13
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GBPUSD - UK Pound Sterling
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British Pound bullish sentiment is at 13%. As you see it can and might stay in this lower range
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The Pound has bee crushed and should bounce in the next day or two as it is on day 12/13 with the downside Countdown.
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Yen bullish sentiment is at 40% a slight bounce from last week's low of 28%
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USDJPY daily shows the green Setup 9 had a price reaction and now it is holding 109.
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Canadian bullish sentiment is at 12%
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This does not have a DeMark Countdown present at the moment. It seems to be CAD will fall further - this is an inverted chart
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Swiss Franc bullish sentiment is at 34% and has been moving higher from a recent low of 7%
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USDCHF daily did get the pink Combo exhaustion while there still is a red Countdown on day 10/13. I expect another run at lows - this is inverted too
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AUDUSD - Australian Dollar
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Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 26%
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AUDUSD daily stalled at recent lows and still has a downside DeMark Countdown on day 6/13.
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NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar
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New Zealand Dollar bullish sentiment is at 25%
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NZDUSD daily trades similar to the Aussie with an unfinished Countdown on day 7/13
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USDNOK daily has a Countdown on day 8/13 and this should NOK should continue to weaken vs USD
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USDSEK daily same story as the SEK is on day 5/13
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USDDKK daily looks more similar to the EURUSD on day 11/13
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If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know
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Mexican Peso bullish sentiment is at 30%
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USDMXN daily shows this could be just a pause before resuming trend
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USDCNH - Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)
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USDCNH daily is on day 7/13 and should continue in this trend until completion. This is something I am watching very close
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USDHKD - Hong Kong Dollar
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USDHKD daily has little spikes that usually when there is some stress in the system
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USDSGD - Singapore Dollar
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USDSGD daily shows a pause and I expect a resumption of the trend as this is only on day 2/13 with the red Sequential Countdown
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USDINR daily had both a recent pink Combo and red Sequential. Since there were two green Setup 9's completed the secondary red Countdown on day 4/13 is something to watch but not obsess over as the first 13 takes more weight with me. This is a pause that could continue for a few days or weeks before resuming trend
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USDZAR - South African Rand
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USDZAR daily paused on the pink Combo 13 and has an unfinished upside red Countdown on day 11/13
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USDRUB daily should resume the trend as there is a red Sequential Countdown on day 5/13.
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USDTRY daily has seen some very volatile action and still has an upside Countdown on day 6/13
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USDILS daily paused at the wave 3 price objective with both the pink Combo and red Sequential 13's. There is a bigger move ahead
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USDRON daily is on day 10/13 and should complete the exhaustion this week
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USDCZK daily has a red Sequential 13 and a pause from the current trend should start within a few days
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USDHUF - Hungarian Forint
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USDHUF daily is on day 12/13 with the Countdown. A pause later this week is likely
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USDPLN daily is on day 11/13
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USDARS daily is on day 8/13 with a red Sequential Countdown. The volatility has subsided but not the trend
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If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know
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EURJPY daily still shows defined weakness for the Euro vs Yen
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EURGBP - Euro British Pound
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EURGBP daily cross has gone sideways together as both have been mauled
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EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc
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EURCHF daily has moved back nearly to February levels however I still can make a case for a deeper move after a short lived bounce
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EURCAD - Euro Canadian Dollar
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EURCAD daily has had both pink Combo's and a red Sequential and a bounce for the Euro is due however this was the 3rd of 5 waves so one should expect lower Euro again soon
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EURAUD - Euro Australian Dollar
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EURAUD daily is on day 11/13 with the red Countdown. Short lived bounce and then Euro should work lower
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If there are any important crosses you would like me to add or send one off, please let me know
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GBPJPY - British Pound Yen
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The Pound made a new low vs Yen today
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CHFJPY daily after the bounce in the Swiss Franc should continue lower vs Yen
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AUDJPY - Australian Dollar Yen
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AUDJPY daily should continue higher soon
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Gold bullish sentiment is at 24% and off the recent low of 10%
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Gold Futures daily is a little mixed in that there is an unfinished downside red Countdown on day 3/13 but the wave pattern is bullish with this move lower locking in wave 4 with an upside wave 5 price objective higher that the high in January where there was a nice upside exhaustion signal
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XBTUSD daily remains in a weak position with it on day 3/13 with a downside Countdown. A break of the April lows would revert back the wave to the down wave 5.
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