The Week Ahead

The big news this weekend is the US/China generally positive statement on trade. ISI had some early thoughts:

Liu He said no trade war and also no tariffs either way, but neither was explicit in the statement. That would have been too easy. How would Lighthizer (and Navarro) think?Pledges were vague, on deficit reduction, IP protection and investment facilitation. No specific number was mentioned, nor was ZTE. Ag and energy exports singled out, positively. Beijing’s not going to tie itself up to details at this point. Only to endorse soft goal, objective, intent. We can see $100 bln decline in 3 years; not $200 bln in 1 year.
We also expect: China -- open up auto, finance sectors, cut tariffs on various imports from US; Washington -- ease restrictions on China investments in the US, especially in tech.

Shorter: Details are vague but the market talk will be trade war and tariff fears are now defused. If the US/Trump protest anything it will be the lack of agreement for the $200 billion target.

Earnings volume will pick up a bit this week with notable reporters including but not limited to (AAP, CBRL, KSS, TJX, TOL, INTU, HPE, LOW TGT, TIF, LB, NTAP, MDT, ADSK, GPS, FL, LGF.A).

Corporate news flow will also be generated at analysts events and conferences. Analyst / investor meetings include MU, BAX, WBA, TMO, PYPL, TSS, CELG to name a few, combined with numerous conferences where companies will be presenting.

On the economic front, domestically we will see Fed speakers on Monday with the Richmond Fed meeting on Tuesday, Flash PMIs and FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday FHFA home prices Thursday and US durable goods and Michigan confidence on Friday. Abroad we will see Euro-zone Flash PMI's and German IFO on Friday.

Bullish sentiment for the S&P a week ago was at a recent cycle high of 57% and on Friday it was back down to 42%. The US equity markets continue to trade in a narrow range lacking momentum again. The Nikkei did have another upside DeMark exhaustion on Friday. UK, France, Italian indexes had upside exhaustion last week and I expect the Euro Stoxx 50 to trigger this coming week. The US Dollar strength has continued despite the extreme bullish sentiment at 88%. My view is that a pullback is imminent but that pullback will only be short lived as the extreme bullish positioning with the Euro still has a long way to go to work off. I will be sending the Hedge Fund Telemetry Currency Focus email in a few hours.

Monday 21-May:

Corporate:

Earnings:

Pre-open: MNRO
Post-close: NDSN, PSTG

Brokerage Conferences:

UBS Global Oil & Gas
JP Morgan Energy Bus Tour
UBS Global Healthcare and Life Sciences
Raymond James Credit
Citigroup ICSC RECon
Citi Meetings at AGA Financial

Analyst Meeting: BAX, MNRO, GAIN, GLAD, MU
IPO: AMBO, EVOP
PDUFA: DOVA (Avatrombopag), COPN.SW (Methylene Blue MMX)

Economic:

US: Fed Speakers: Bostic, Jarker, Kashari, Chicago Fed activity
Europe: UK right-move House Price (May)

Tuesday 22-May:

Corporate:

Earnings:

Pre-open: AAP, AZO, CBRL, EV, IGT, KSS, TJX, TOL
Post-close: INTU, HPE, RRGB, TCS

Brokerage Conferences:

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc Financial Services
B. Riley FBR Institutional Investor
Berenberg USA
Citigroup ICSC RECon
Citi Meetings at AGA Financial
UBS Global Healthcare and Life Sciences
UBS Global Oil & Gas
Wolfe Research Global Transportation
JP Morgan Energy Bus Tour

Analyst Meeting: SHW, BRKS, DFIN, SANM, QVCA, WBA, NATI, DY, XLNX, HIPP

Economic:

US: Richmond Fed Index
Europe: UK Public sector Borrowing (Apr), CBI industrial Trends (May)
Asia: Japan PMI manufacturing (May)

Wednesday 23-May:

Corporate:

Earnings:

Pre-open: LOW, RL, TGT, TIF
Post-close: BRS, LB, NTAP, SNPS, WSM

Brokerage Conferences:

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc Financial Services
B. Riley FBR Institutional Investor
Berenberg USA Conference
UBS Global Healthcare and Life Sciences
UBS Global Oil & Gas
Wolfe Research Global Transportation
Citi Consumer Staples
JP Morgan Energy Bus Tour

Analyst Meeting: PCAR, ASGN, ALGN, HUN, QRVO, SPTN, TMO, PLAB, HPP, PFG, PSTG
IPO: GSKY, KNSA, SRRK

Economic:

US: New home sales (Apr), US FOMC Minutes (May), US flash PMI (May)
Europe: Euro-zone Markit PMI (May), Consumer Confidence Indicator (May), Germany Markit PMI (May), UK CPI (May), PPI (Apr), Retail price index (Apr),:

Thursday 24-May:

Corporate:

Earnings:

Pre-open: BBY, HRL, MCK, MDT, TTC
Post-close: ADSK, DECK, DXC, GPS, LGF.A, NTNX, QSII, ROST, SCVL, SPLK, VEEV, ZOES

Brokerage Conferences:

B. Riley FBR Institutional Investor
UBS Global Healthcare and Life Sciences
UBS Global Oil & Gas
Berenberg USA

Analyst Meeting: MCRB, PFG, DERM, HY, TSS, CBT, TTMI, VTL, PYPL, SPGI, CELG
IPO: ITRM

Economic:

US: Existing Home Sales (Apr), Fed Speakers: Dudley, Harker
Europe: Germany Construction / equipment Investment (Q1), GDP (Q1) UK Retail Sales (Apr)
Asia:

Friday 25-May:

Corporate:

Earnings:

Pre-open: BKE, FL, HIBB

PDUFA: IQV, MRK (Lenvima); BMRN, MKR.GR (Pegvaliase)

Economic:

US: US durable goods (Apr), Michigan Confidence (May), Fed Speakers: Powell, Kaplan, Evans, and Bostic
Europe: Germany lfo data (May) UK GDP
Asia: Japan CPI (May)

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