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Currency Focus - Hedge Fund Telemetry
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We have had a lot of requests for focused weekly emails for various markets. Overwhelmingly currencies have been requested the most by subscribers. Many money managers look first at the currency markets as a guide for the true tell for direction with other markets like equities, bonds, and commodities.
One of the things we've noticed absent from the February/March equity correction was volatility within the currency markets. It was dead calm with
the USD Index trading within a tight range on the lows. However, in the past month everything started to move. We this report we start at the US Dollar and go from there with all of the major crosses. From there we look at the Emerging Markets currencies. We may not be on the ground in a particular country and have the full understanding of some fundamental and geo political issues but the DeMark analysis and Sentiment Data is quite good. We hope this helps and adds to your analysis of all markets. Please email if you want weekly of longer term charts. And please feedback is always appreciated.
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Let's start off right at the epicenter of currencies - USD. Bullish sentiment is in extreme territory at 89%. My overall belief is that the crosses will bounce vs USD but it is unlikely this is the end of the recent run
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The strong move in the USD should consolidate with the upside spike. It's surpassed the upside Wave 3 price objective yet has a red upside Countdown on day 4 of 13. Pullback and then higher to 95 perhaps
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Euro bullish sentiment is at 9% up from yesterday's 7% extreme oversold reading. Bounce due
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Euro spot is on day 4 of 13 with the downside Countdown. A bounce to 1.20 would be a nice place to lay out more short
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British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment is at 28% an might need to spend some time down here
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GBP is trying to hold the 1.35 level. What a nice upside exhaustion Countdown 13 at the peak
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Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 14% bulls
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Aussie Dollar is quite oversold however is on day 3 of 13 with its downside Countdown. Bounce and lower
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Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 26% up from 19% the previous day
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Canadian Dollar is trying to consolidate
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Swiss Franc is extremely oversold at 9%
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CHF has an upside Combo exhaustion and is on day 10 of 13 with its upside Sequential Countdown
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New Zealand Dollar is at 30% and didn't get fully oversold like late last year
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New Zealand Dollar is on day 5 of 13 with a downside Countdown
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Mexican Peso bullish sentiment is at 33% and looks lower
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MXN is on day 7 of 9 with a green Setup. This is inverse
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Japanese Yen bullish sentiment is at 42% and a new low for the cycle
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Yen inverse is going to drop vs the USD and every other currency. It's on day 3 of 13 and has room to move to 112-114. Positive for Japan equities if this continues
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Danish Krone inverse should weaken further as it's on day 4 of 13 with its DeMark Countdown
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Hong Kong dollar stuck for now
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Chinese Renminbi bottomed at 6.25 and is starting to quietly move. This is one to watch for risk off in China
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India Ruppee should stop at this level and consolidate
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Russian Ruble should consolidate more
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Swedish Krona has one more spike lower to fulfill the DeMark exhaustion 13.
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Singapore Dollar reaching Wave 3 and is on day 8 of 9 with a green Setup. Reversal and consolidate within next few days
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Turkish Lira had a wide move yesterday on day 7 of 9 and could try and consolidate. This one is under stress so don't try and be hero even if it's oversold
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South African Rand is weakening vs the USD and likely has more to go to fulfill the DeMark 13
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Czech Koruna has weakened vs the USD and is on day 4 of 13 with its Countdown. Some consolidation is due before further weakening
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Hungarian Forint like others have weakened quickly vs the USD and is on day 4 of 13 with its Countdown
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Israeli Shekel had a recent exhaustion vs the USD and is consolidating. My estimate this moves to 3.51 before declining again
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Norwegian Krone should consolidate here with the last two days. There is a red Countdown on day 3 of 13 however this one might hold in this range
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Polish Zloty has weakened quickly vs the USD and is on day 3 of 13 with the DeMark Countdown. Yesterday's reversal should start a consolidation
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Romanian Leu continues to weaken on day 3 of 13 with a DeMark Countdown
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Gold is trying to hold the recent support however there is a DeMark Countdown on day 2 of 13. There is huge support at 1300 and if this breaks a lot of gold people that expected the upside breakout will be selling down exposure
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