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Crude prices and interest rates have been rising and are hitting new recent highs.  This is great news for the energy sector, which is the sector I've been most positive with in the last couple months.  Interest rates continue to rise and with the US 10 year above 3% financials are perking up.  There are days when financials don't like higher rates but the last couple days it's been a positive.  Consumer related sectors are starting to react to the higher prices of crude and interest rates.  Retail, home builders, airlines are notable sectors that have been softening.  It's a positive that there has been low employment considering consumers have had higher healthcare, housing, and education costs in the last couple years that they have absorbed relatively well with the benefit of low energy costs and low interest rates, so how will the consumer react in the coming months?  

Yesterday I posted the NDX attribution for 2018 and it clearly showed the mega caps stocks doing an extreme amount of the heavy lifting.  Tech stocks historically haven't reacted well to both higher crude prices and higher rates but the FANG stocks didn't get the memo.  I'm honestly annoyed with some of my trade ideas with this group and the Index ETF's.  I've been doing this for a while and know the face ripping potential and that's why I've given myself some room with wide stops especially when there are downside Countdowns in progress.  Yesterday I mentioned I could possibly see 2710 on the SPX if things moved more and I'm not sure it will get there.  The second SPY chart is the 60 minute time frame and it's nearly exhausted on the upside and I've been using this one tactically as it spotted the exact high several times this year.

I am sending later a special note focused only on currencies. 

Notable:

• US Markets - Sentiment could move to 50% today.   Some of the  lagging sectors are joining energy to lift the indexes
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Took off MMM long
  
• European Markets - Starting to see upside exhaustion on several of the big country indexes
  
• Currencies - Sentiment on the USD and crosses at extremes that should see consolidation
  
• Asian Markets - Kospi at support
  
• Bloomberg World Index - A little more upside before another upside exhaustion
  
• Crude and Energy Stocks Update - A little more upside expected
  
• FANG's  - A look at the mega caps
  
• A few big cap names I'm watching for long entry
  
• Bond Update
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 40% up from 38% the previous day

SPY is back clearly above the 50 day moving average  and still has the downside red Countdown which is why I'm holding SPY short... for now.

SPY on 60 minute chart is on the 11th bar of 13 and I'll be making a decision tomorrow if the upside 13 expected by the end of the day does not react down.  

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 44% up from 43% the previous day

QQQ is now above 167 and has surpassed the April high.  The shorter term tactical 30 minute charts are starting to get upside exhaustion signals and if there is not a price reaction tomorrow lower, I will take this off with a loss

The Dow still is below April's high and also has a downside red Countdown still in play

Sell in May and Go Away actually has worked well if you bought T-Bills.   I know this time is different.  

TD Ameritrade has a sentiment reading and it's continued to move lower.  

Trade Ideas - Took off MMM long with a 3% gain.  Not pleased with some of the shorts and will be evaluating covering some in the next day.  More thoughts below under FANG's

UK FTSE 100 is on day 11 of 13 with a red Sequential Countdown.  The DeMark Indicators have worked very will in the past with the FTSE 100.  

France joins Italy with an upside red Sequential upside 13 Countdown exhaustion

German DAX is on day 8 of 9 with a green Setup 9.  A pullback or consolidation is due in the next two days

Euro Stoxx 50 has a red Countdown on day 7 of 13 and did have a green Setup 9

Italy with its upside red Sequential 13 on the upside  now

USD bullish sentiment is at 89% and that is pretty extreme.  Some consolidation is expected

DXY US Dollar Index is down a little today and should consolidate with the extreme sentiment  but I do expect it to continue higher with the upside Countdown on day 3 of 13

Euro bullish sentiment is at 7%.  Same story as the USD obviously.  Extreme

Euro has a red Countdown on day 4 of 13 to the downside

Korean Kospi is back to short term support

India Nifty 50 is on day 8 of 13 with an upside Countdown

Japan Nikkei is on day 9 of 13 with the upside Countdown

Bloomberg World Index is on day 8 of 13.  This is still in a relatively tight range

Crude bullish sentiment is at 74% and should be back in extreme zone later today

WTI Crude Futures daily is on day 8 of 13 with the upside Countdown and using the DeMark Trend Factor targets now has an upside target of 73.22

The weekly had recent upside exhaustion signals Combo, Sequential and last week a green Setup

Brent Crude is on day 11 of 13 and has a Trend Factor level of 78.93.  It is really amazing how all of the levels saw consolidation

Brent long term weekly shows the upside and downside exhaustion signals working pretty well over  the years at inflection points.  Brent also had pink Combo and red Sequential signals

OIH Oil Drilling ETF has been super strong after the downside exhaustion signal in early April.  

SLB has been my go to long idea several times after the downside exhaustion red 13's

FANG + Index has been strong obviously and today there is an upside green Setup 9 which have worked well ahead of stalling or reversing

NFLX was  good recent short idea after the hoopla over their earnings faded.  I covered this at 317 as I expected the upside Countdown to complete.  NFLX will have to trade over the 8th red bar (the high day) to trigger the 13 exhaustion signal

AAPL is slightly stalling in the past few days and is on day 8 of 9 with an upside green Setup.  I am actually comfortable being short this one more than some others.  

AMZN is at 1600 again and my basis is 1571 ~2.5% down.  This one too doesn't bother me as I expect that weakness in retail to bleed into AMZN

FB does bother me as I believe this is more crowded on the short side than others.  I've giving this another day.  

GOOGL has made a series of lower highs and I expect another one below 1100.  My average is 1040 ~4%

DIS reported earnings and sold off due to the TV biz still not great and the FOX takeover complicated with Comcast upping the price.  This daily chart is on day 8 of 13 with a downside Countdown

DIS weekly has had good success with the DeMark indicators over the years and with the weekly it's on week 12 of 13 but it has to move a little lower under  the 8th week to trigger.  

WMT had a recent downside exhaustion red 13 but I held back putting it on the trade ideas as a long since the downside exhaustion occurred in wave 3 and you know my reservations about buying Wave 3 exhaustion signals.  It's because the next wave is Wave 4 which is a short lived upside corrective bounce followed by further downside into Wave 5.  It's in Wave 5 today and I could see this drip a little further.  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 30% down from 33%

Here is a close up of the US 10 year yield with an upside Countdown on day 4 of 13 and Trend Factor targets of 3.01 (notice how when it reached that level it backed off) and 3.1682

LQD Investment Grade ETF is bouncing today after making a multi year low.  I think this is a huge risk

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