If you are having difficulty seeing this email, you can view in your browser or click here to print.

On CNBC today Becky Quick asked Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway if he had an iPhone considering they just bought 75 million more shares in the last quarter making them the third largest holder at 5%.  Charlie Munger, is about as direct and dry as it gets and at 94 is as sharp as ever .  I love the guy as he is not shy about voicing his opinions even when popular or unpopular.  Charlie responded quickly "Of course not, I've given up my adding machine."  All I can say it thank God both Charlie and Warren do not have iPhones as they would probably buy another 75 million shares if they knew how great they were... and addictive too.  I'm speaking from a point of view as a trader who does not see Apple as a place to buy today.  I added it in the Trade Ideas list ahead of the earnings and added after the earnings.  It's a great company, one of the best ever, yet people are not discussing what they normally associate with Apple - great innovative products but rather the large company buyback.  I'm a price action person and not a value investor and I study investor psychology which also implies where people bought stock as a level of support.  The post earnings afterburner from when Buffett announced he bought more took me by surprise by the magnitude of the move.  I read the Apple Q today and they bought $22 billion worth of stock at 171.48 and that's not the greatest timing as the stock closed lower for the quarter.  I am sure Berkshire's recent price is in the neighborhood of what Apple paid and between them it's $35 billion worth.  For Apple there are now two levels I'm watching as support the 170-171-50 (Apple and Berkshire) and the VWAP from the earnings print on 5/1 179.25.  Buy the way kudos to CNBC as they compiled a huge archive of all things Warren Buffett and it sounds amazing.  Now if I had time to watch or read it all!  

Another up day today with the usual suspects leading (mega cap tech and Amazon) and the energy sector is exceptionally strong with crude prices moving higher on the concerns about the Iran deal breaking.  We should know by May 12th the decision if the deal remains, is modified, or scrapped all together.  I've been positive on energy stocks and remain focuse mostly on the drillers.  The strength in crude prices is starting to show with retail stocks and transports.  It's been a developing theme.  

Near term support levels I am watching on the major index ETF's are VWAP levels calculated from last Friday's Employment Report:  Emini's:  2655, SPY 265.50, QQQ 164.50, IWM 155.75, DIA 242.00.  Breaking these levels would bring out sellers again for another run at the 200 day moving average.

Notable:

• US Markets - Thanks to the FAANGs for the bounce off the 200 day.  Sentiment improved a little but remains under 50%
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Covered NVDA with stop loss hit, Added more to GE
  
• European Markets - Continue to see upside albeit quiet and slow
  
• Currencies - USD crosses are getting to extremes on sentiment but DeMark indicators sell more
  
• Asian Markets - China still stuck
  
• Crude and Energy Stocks Update - Opportunity to trade crude long and I still like energy stocks
  
• Recent Stock Ideas - NVDA, TSLA, GE, AAPL
  
• Bond Update - Bond sentiment perking up.  
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600  - FYI on the weekly list of upside 13's AMZN showed up.
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 37%

SPY is back to the 50 day moving average and positive again for the year.  There still is a downside red Countdown in play on day 8 of 13.   Again watch that VWAP for support at 265.50

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 40% and should be back near or above 50% with QQQ acting well today

QQQ also has the downside red Countdown still in play and has really benefited by the outperformance with the mega cap tech names... again.  

FAANG stocks are holding above the 50 day and surpassed the April high.  Could this continue?  Anything is possible but I'd watch out for the green Setup 9 that probably will trigger on Wednesday for a reversal or stalling out

The Dow is still below the April highs and right at the 50 day.  

Trade Ideas:  NVDA was stopped out with preset 10% stop limit.  Poor entry this time.  Chart below.  Added more GE long making it a 5% sized position.  Chart below.   Given back more that I would like overall but it's important for me to emphasize these trade ideas have a time frame of weeks to months.  We hope to roll out this Summer a long only asset allocation portfolio with both stocks and ETF's.   It will be helpful for those who are not traders but are looking for help managing longer term assets including retirement portfolios.  

Euro Stoxx 50 continues to creep higher and will likely have a green Setup 9 tomorrow and a short term pullback (3-5 days) should occur.  

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 85% and remains in the extreme zone

USD Index has a new secondary upside red Countdown on day 3 of 13.  Note the last one went side ways and broke out late into the Countdown.  I expect higher levels for the USD in the next few months

Euro bullish sentiment has plummeted to 13%.  

Euro spot is on day 2 of 13 with a red downside Countdown

GBP British Pound Sterling is pretty stretched to the downside yet it's on day 5 of 13 with a downside Countdown so any bounce should be sold

Bitcoin XBTUSD made a Wave 5 bottom barely below the Wave 3 and has an upside red Countdown on day 7 of 13.    

Shanghai has been trying to base and finally lifted above 3100.  Two levels to watch 3050 and 3200.  

Hang Seng still looks weak with a secondary downside red Countdown on day 8 of 13

Crude bullish sentiment is at 81% and back into the extreme zone.  I've seen crude sentiment move well into the 90's and if the Iran catalyst starts getting hot, sentiment will be here quickly

WTI crude is on day 7 of 13 and is breaking out of this April consolidation.  If you are short, cover.  If looking for a long trade, give it a go with stop around 68

XLE Energy ETF is on day 9 of 13 and it should continue higher.  It's getting a little late so don't go nuts on the long side with exposure

OIH Oil Drillers ETF is on day 6 of 13 and I continue to like SLB as a long

SLB looks good and is only on day 2 of 13 with its upside Countdown.  I am very tempted to double up this long to 5%

NVDA was stopped out today with a 10% loss.   They report earnings this week and expectations are high and now the stock is back to the old highs.  I wish I could be short this one as there are some red flags such as huge insider selling,  but my entry was poor this go around and I have to stay disciplined.  It happens and although losses hurt, it's part of the game.  

TSLA has a colorful CEO who Tweet's a lot of stuff, crazy stuff.  This weekend it was about how well the production of the latest car is going... oh wait.  Wrong.  Production is terrible and he's now resorting to stock manipulation calling for a short squeeze of the century.  Desperado.

GE is starting to act better and I doubled up the size in this one on the Trade Ideas list to 5%.  There is now an upside Wave 3 price objective of 15.82.   Progress.

AAPL 30 min time frame is tactical and has had several clusters of upside exhaustion signals which keeps me in the stock short.  I figure once the Berkshire hoopla subsides then the stock will have a pullback.  

AAPL daily shows the last 2 days huge move that should consolidate soon

My friend Todd Harrison, superstar trader and great guy runs a cannabis focused hedge fund that is smoking! (haha)  In the last year, I have been researching on the medical benefits of cannabis as well seeing the population's sentiment turning positive. Todd's fund CB1 Capital has a saying "Cannabis isn't about getting high, it's about getting well."   GWPH is one of the leading companies that Todd has told me about and they chart looks good.  If you would like to learn more about Todd's fund and get on the firm's mailing list go to CB1 Capital

Bond bullish sentiment is at 33%  and should be watched close for an upside move

Close up of the US 10 Year Yield is on day 7 of 9 with a green Setup.  A break of 2.90 or 3.00 are the two levels to watch  

2/10 Spread Yield Curve has been flattening and now has a second downside red 13

Unsubscribe me from Hedge Fund Telemetry

Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC, P.O. Box 4675, Greenwich, CT 06861, United States