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Sorry for the late note today.  I've been working on a special project for a couple clients

The title of my note is my way of being sarcastic as I am a little perturbed with the strong reaction with stocks in the US today after the weak jobs report.  I'm punchy but glad it's Friday.   Never enjoyable giving back some gains  as I've been set up ~50% net short as majority of indicators still shows poor risk reward.  This by no means is the worst short squeeze I've even witnessed and when this tends to happen I run through a lot of charts with various time frames and then decide to make a few adjustments and stay the course on the rest.  I took some profits on a couple ideas and doubled up on three ideas and tightened the stops too.  The point of the trading ideas page was not to be too short term but to point out ideas that offered good risk reward on both long and short side.  When we roll out the trade idea alerts I hope to be able to trade a little tighter.  Definitely feeling offside.  

Apple is the big story on the day as it's up on news that Warren Buffett bought 75 million more shares in Q1 making Berkshire the third largest holder.  Between Berkshire and the Apple company buyback it was a substantial amount of shares as a percentage traded in Q1.  Apple was down 1.5% for Q1 too so it would be interesting to ponder how far down would Apple be without Berkshire.  People chasing Apple stock today are likely going to regret it as Berkshire already bought those shares and I would guarantee they will not be adding half or even a quarter of that number in the coming quarters.  It's also concerning that the current "iPhone Super Cycle" is struggling and inventories have been building.  But today is a "Who cares, just buy" type of day.  Let's see if they can keep it going next week!  My work says that will be a challenge.

Have a great weekend! 

Notable:

• US Markets - Sentiment remains weak and it will interesting to see where today's reading jump to
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Took off NFLX +5.85%, VNQ +1.90%, Added 2.5% exposure to BBY, AMZN, NVDA
  
• European Markets - Still grinding higher but some upside exhaustion signals are coming into play
  
• Currencies - Some consolidation due with extreme sentiment
  
• Asian Markets - Hong Kong struggling still, India nearly exhaustion
  
• US Unemployment Report
  
• A few recent ideas
  
• US Sectors - Before you panic that the market is breaking out, examine all of these
  
• Bond Update - TLT still needs to get over 50 day
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 31%

SPY having a big day today and the downside Countdown remains on day 8 of 13

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at  36%

QQQ back above the flat 50 day moving average and still below the April high.  The downside Countdown remains on day 7 of 13

Dow Jones up today too and still under the 50 day with a downside Countdown on day 9 of 13

SPX cumulative advance decline as of yesterday was at the 50 day moving average.  If this continues lower in the coming days then more downside and perhaps breaking the recent lows will be easier

Trade Ideas - Removed NFLX, VNQ (Day 12 of 13 with upside Countdown), Added to NVDA, BBY, AMZN

Euro Stoxx 50 grinding higher

UK has been strong and now has a pink Combo 13 with the red Sequential a few days from an upside exhaustion

Italy similar as it's one day 10 of 13 with the red Sequential upside Countdown

France is on day 12 of 13 with an upside red Sequential Countdown and also had a pink Combo 13 too  

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 84% in extreme zone

US Dollar Index continues higher although I believe it will consolidate the recent gains next week

Euro bullish sentiment is at 19%

Euro has exceeded the downside Wave 5 price objective and is now on day 2 of 13 with a downside Countdown.  Again, I feel there is a bounce or consolidation likely next week

Hong Kong was down pretty hard yesterday and is on day 7 of 13 with the secondary downside Countdown

Tencent is the largest weight and its Countdown is on day 10 of 13 and the downside Wave 3 price objective is near

India Sensex has a pink Combo 13 and a red Countdown on day 6 of 13.  Consolidation likely

This monthly chart of the US unemployment rate illustrates the long downward move in the rate and after 5 months at 4.1% it ticked down to 3.9%.  Currently there is a red Countdown on month 9 of 13.  Considering it's down as the labor participation rate dropped again the reading isn't much to celebrate

BA weekly chart illustrates how extreme this stock has been.  I'm staying short

BBY on a 30 minute time frame shows the bounce and potential Wave 3 downside price objective AT 71.56.   

BBY still has a downside Wave 3 price objective at 59.64.  I will keep a tight leash on this one

NFLX was removed today at a decent gain as it couldn't follow through under the 50 day moving average

PG as I mentioned the other day as a potential long idea.  The action looks good and I will likely buy it next week

QCOM is another one I found I mentioned the other day too as a long.  I will examine next week too for a long entry

Financials bounced off support but and still has a downside Countdown

Consumer Discretionary going sideways - AMZN, HD are largest weights

Consumer Staples is on day 11 of 13 with a downside Countdown and nearly at the downside Wave 5 price objective.  

Energy still looks good with the upside red Countdown.  If this starts to breakdown under the recent low in April I will pull my positive bias

Healthcare still looks risky

Industrials has some downside exhaustion and is partly why I added GE and MMM on the long side

Tech is strong today and still under the April lows

Materials nice bounce near support

Telecom near downside exhaustion

Utilities grinding higher

Bond bullish sentiment is at 31%

TLT still struggling to get over 50 day

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