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I'm going to call the guy who does the buyback for Apple "Number 2" as he deserves credit for keeping Apple's stock up through the first quarter - maybe more than Tim Cook.  Apparently they started the buyback at the lows on on February 8th and concluded it late in March - nice timing.  The average price I would estimate around $168.  This was a tough quarter that turned out to be solid as earnings beat estimates and worst fears on iPhone sales.  They also announced a buyback of $100,000 billion and combined with the earnings the stock is up 4% today.  I doubled up my short today to make it a full 5% weight.  As much as last quarter was difficult, this coming quarter will be even harder because demand still isn't that great and I haven't heard anyone mention the potential for a new iPhone refresh in the Fall. Furthermore, they ended the quarter with huge inventories and that will weigh on suppliers too.  After the excitement from earnings and buyback the stock should start to fade again and that's when Number 2 will do his magic.

Europe continues to drift higher and its becoming clear that the weaker currencies vs the US dollar are helping out again. 

I made a several adjustments in the Trade Ideas today.  The Fed is on at 2pm today and nothing is expected to change.  Tesla earnings after the bell today and it should be another entertaining conference call.  If you haven't been on a Tesla call, I highly recommend doing so before they either go bankrupt or Elon leaves for Mars.  

Notable:

• US Markets - Saved by Apple for now.  Sentiment still muted
  
• Apple Thoughts
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - A lot of adjustments today
  
• European Markets - Still continue to drift up.  FTSE 100 might be close to a top again
  
• Currencies - A bounce in the major USD Crosses is likely soon
  
• Asian Markets - Nikkei  and Kospi should continue a little higher, China/HK still flat
  
• Crude Update - Still Neutral on Crude, positive on Energy stocks
  
• Gold Update - Trying to stay long
  
• Industrial Ideas
  
• Financials Ideas
  
• Tesla
  
• Texas Instruments
  
• Bond Update - Bonds must rally in next few days to keep long trade on
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 32%

SPY still has a downside red Countdown on day 8 of 13

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 37%

QQQ still under the 50 day and has a downside red Countdown on day 7 of 13

Apple has gapped up 4% and still is under the April closing high and Wave 2 bounce level.  Breaking the March ATH would change the wave count.  

Apple's Number 2 really was busy this past quarter.  If they buy back another $22 million in this quarter the price would likely be close to last quarter's price (within 5-10%) and the big risk could be if the stock breaks below that price

Apple's inventories have been rising in the past year and this quarter they exploded.  Terrible for suppliers and TSM's warning was maybe not enough

Trade Ideas:  Covered CAT, GS.  Added Long:  GE, MMM.  Added Short: TXN.  Doubled Size:  TSLA

Euro Stoxx 50 drifting up and is on day 5 of 13 with an upside Countdown.  I would expect this to continue if the Euro remains under 1.23

Euro Stoxx 600 is more broad and also looks good

German DAX held the support at 50 day and now is re accelerating

British FTSE 100 has been strong as mentioned recently however there is a pink Combo upside exhaustion 13 today with the red Sequential on day 10 of 13.  This should pullback in the coming week

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 85% and now in firmly in the extreme zone

DXY US Dollar Index had a green Setup 9 yesterday and now has a red Countdown on day 2 of 13.  I do expect some moderation and pullback in the coming days especially with sentiment extreme

Euro bullish sentiment is at 24% a new low in the cycle

Euro has achieved the downside Wave 5 price objective and has a green Setup 9 too.  A bounce is likely in the coming days

British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment is at 37%

Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 12% and is very oversold

Nikkei Index is on day 9 of 13 with an upside Countdown.  A little more upside

Korean Kospi might be choppy sideways but slightly up before lower.  The Wave 2 is a corrective bounce

Hong Kong China FXI ETF still sideways.  

Crude bullish sentiment is at 69% and slipping a little lower after hitting 84% recently

WTI Futures still going sideways.  I'm neutral on Crude but still positive on Energy stocks

Gold bullish sentiment is at 27% and is getting closer to being oversold

Gold Futures had a green Setup 9 yesterday and I am hoping this will bounce here.  

Silver Futures is on day 8 of 9 with a downside green Setup.  Same story as gold

MMM has been crushed and has executed a perfect 5 wave downside pattern.  Green Setup 9's have worked well at turning points along the way and with it at the 5th Wave price objective it's on day 8 of 9 with the Setup and day 10 of 13 with the red Sequential Countdown I added a 2.5% weight on the long side.  

CAT was removed today with nearly a 9% gain on the short side.  Support is good at 140 and I didn't feel like waiting for it

GE is back as a long idea after holding the 50 day moving average.  It's a 2.5% size for now and I might even add to it.  This was my best short last year and I turned positive on it in December with the last downside exhaustion signals and huge insider buying but was stopped out quickly.  

AIG is a current long in the Trade Ideas list and reports after the bell.  Today's weakness is due to Validus reporting a weak number and AIG is trying to buy them.  It's a little hairy but if anything there is now an upside Wave 3 price objective of 58.28

GS was removed today for an 8% gain on the short side.  It was nearing the price objective and will revisit again on the Wave 4 bounce

BKX Bank Index has a lot of support at 105.  If that breaks then look out below

TSLA reports today and I added to max out the size to 5% short.  I can't imagine anything good with the earnings report from last quarter.  Considering 3 major senior finance people left late in the quarter, it will be interesting if a fiction writer took over the responsibilities.  

TXN goes on the Trade Ideas today as a 2.5% short as it still has a poor looking chart and I didn't see any good reports yesterday with auto sales

Bond bullish sentiment is at 27% and still muted

TLT Bond ETF is in a make or break place as it needs to continue the upside and complete the upside green Setup 9 or else the new red Countdown on day 4 will take over.  

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