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At a dinner this weekend someone asked us what are our top 5 all time movies at a dinner with friends? The usual films you'd expect were discussed but I said my favorite is Being There with Peter Sellers.  It's a brilliant film that finds a simple minded man who is a gardener by life long trade who has only knowledge from gardening and from watching TV.  Through a coincidence he is found by a woman who is married to an older wealthy well connected man in Washington.  His name is Chance but they pick up  his name as "Chancey Gardener" and he is thrust into the spotlight as his simplistic words about gardening and what he learned from TV are perceived as sage advice and wisdom with the older man.  That man also happens to be a confidant for the current President.  The best lines were when "Chancey" meets the President:

It's a great film and its held up through time - check it out.  I feel the "seasons in the economy" applies today.  The economy has had a long term growth period and S&P 500 earnings have grown by nearly 30% this quarter but is that spring growth coming to an end and a new season is upon us since the markets haven't been able to gain after all good economic and earnings news?  It feels like it to me and I'll continue to take measures to plan for the next season.  Even with some of the short positions going slightly against me, I believe it's important to be there.  

Notable:

• US Markets - Indexes stalling - Sentiment still subdued
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Added BRK/B, LULU short, Doubled up TLT long
  
• Barron's STILL hoping for value over growth
  
• European Markets - Looking at weekly charts today
  
• Currencies - Finally starting to move but for how much longer?
  
• Gold Update - Not acting great and better turn soon or else long is gone
  
• Crude Update - Mixed picture keeps me neutral on Crude but Energy stocks have a little more upside to go
  
• Lightning Round - Random Stocks
  
• Bond Update - Doubled up TLT long
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 34% and remains subdued

COT trader data shows speculators still very bullish - This will make it difficult for future gains

SPY is right in the middle between and upside and downside Wave set up.  I would bet on the downside with the red Countdown still in play

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 37%

QQQ still has a downside red Countdown and has important support at 155.76

Dow Jones is in the mid point of upside and downside Wave targets.  My bet would be on it going south first

SPX monthly chart that I have shown for the past 6 months as a guide for a longer term top in the market.  2200 is the 50 month moving average and I could easily see it make it that low

Note the dates on each of these stories

Trade Ideas:  Added:  2.5% size short BRK/B, LULU.  Doubled to 5% weight TLT long.  BBY annoying me and could be voted off Alpha Island soon.  Holding AAPL short into earnings as of now. I will add if it moves up a lot.   I missed WMT as a long.  Charts below

Looking at weekly charts today.

Euro Stoxx 50 at flat 50 week moving average

Euro Stoxx 600 also at the flat 50 week moving average.  Euro Stoxx 600 peaked 3 years ago!

DAX has a weekly head and shoulder pattern  and at the 50 week moving average

Spain peaked 3 years ago and has made a series of lower highs

Italy has been bellissmo and much different than others

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 71% and likely will be up later today

US Dollar Index is on day 8 of 9 with a green Setup.  Let's see if in the next few days  it can moderate

Euro bullish sentiment is at 37% and a new low for the cycle

Euro is on day 7 of 9 with a downside green Setup and nearing the downside Wave 5 price objective of 1.20

British Pound bullish sentiment is at 46% and now the majority is in the bear camp.  

British Pound daily has a green Setup 9 today and slightly is below the early March lows.  A bounce in the next few days is probable

Swiss Franc bullish sentiment is at 9% for the 3rd day in a row.  It's oversold but as you see it might stay like this for a while

USDCHF is now on day 5 of 13 with a red upside Countdown.  It looks like there is no stopping  this

Aussie Dollar bullish sentiment is at 23% and nearing levels where its bottomed

Japanese Yen bullish sentiment is at 55% and is only at the midpoint of the range.  

Gold bullish sentiment is at 41% and remains at risk for further downside.

Gold futures had a red Countdown 13 last week and is on day 7 of 9 with a green Setup.  If it can't bounce on the 9 I will likely exit the long

Crude bullish sentiment is at 73% and slightly off highs

COT data for Crude shows speculators positioned very very bullish.  This isn't new but it makes me pause getting bullish.  Unwinding this could see Crude drop 10% easily

WTI Futures continue sideways on daily chart with an upside red Countdown on day 5 of 13

On the weekly chart there have been several upside exhaustion signals.  Another reason I hold back enthusiasm on the long side from here

XLE Energy ETF daily is on day 7 of 13 with an upside Countdown.  I still am positive on Energy stocks until the 13

LULU is a new short idea with upside exhaustion signals.  Short interest has been nearly cut in half into this run up.  When shorts are gone, the natural buyer is gone and a vacuum lower could happen with some negative news

BRK/B is a new short idea and looks like it will break support.  It's on day 3 of 13 with a red Countdown too in Wave 3.  

AAPL weekly had an upside red 13 exhaustion signal and I want to hold through earnings.  Everyone knows they had a bad quarter, iPhones are not selling but its held up due to a large $100m shareholder give back.  If they are buying back stock HERE they will be making a bad allocation of that capital with their core product stalling.  

BBY as a short is testing my patience

Macy's has a been a long idea I liked from the teens.  It might become a short idea soon

WMT didn't get the downside red 13 that I was saying last week I wanted to put it on trade ideas on the long side.  I missed this.  

TSLA reports on Wednesday and has bounced off a recent green Setup 9.  I will be holding this through the report and if it does squeeze higher, I will double up the size.  Look for a new "Talk Your Book" later today with TSLA bear case.  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 31% and has bounced from last week's 19%

TLT up again today.  I doubled up the size to 5% on the long side

COT data for 10 year bonds is showing a HUGE increase in short positioning with speculators.  This gives me some hope that a short squeeze in bonds is ahead

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