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As the market cheers the bounce brought on by the good earnings from Facebook one should not forget the business model of Facebook is about to go through some dramatic changes.  As they adopt worldwide new privacy standards ONLY because they were exposed with the Cambridge Analytica news.  This news hit late in the quarter and it didn't impact earnings.  Backlash against some of the practices of collecting data Facebook and others like Google and Amazon do each day will become more of an issue with either regulatory actions or consumers logging off.   The days of people not caring what they are hearing, reading, and data mining are coming to an end.  Have you noticed more "changes to our privacy policies" emails you've seen lately?  Listening to the Facebook conference call last night it was clear they continue to balance the PR fiasco and shareholder value.  I know they have a lot of levers they can pull to drive future earnings and the stock is relatively cheap but the tone of Zuckerberg and Sandberg didn't seem honest a little creepy.  I know this is a bit heavy but it's been on my mind.  Oh and I added FB on the Trade Ideas page today as a 2.5% sized short.  

Tonight after the bell it's an even bigger night of earnings with Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel.  I don't expect any of them to miss and if we get another up day the short thesis won't change.  I am short Amazon and will be holding into the number.  Fair warning,  if you are short and can't take a potential 10% move, then cover.  Next week we get Apple reporting and as a read AT&T reported last night and is trading down 7.5%.  Mobile adds were not terrible but not good enough for the second quarter of a major iPhone release.  Samsung came out today and they are seeing weakness in display panel business (another sign of mobile weakness as they make panels for Apple) Toni Sagonacci who is one of the better analysts lowered his numbers on Iphone yet the stock is up 1% today.  Go figure.  

I added a handful of names to the Trade Ideas page today.  We are working on a way to deliver each trade idea by the most efficient way.  

Notable:

• US Markets - Sentiment is still poor, Countdowns still in play despite the bounce
  
• Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas - Added 2 longs and 4 shorts today
  
• FAANG Custom Index - Despite the bounce in the FAANGS the pattern is not great
  
• Currencies - USD and Euro
  
• Asian Markets - Hong Kong and China still looks weak
  
• Delta - New Short Idea
  
• Technology - A few thoughts and ideas
  
• Oil Service Update - SLB and OIH still look very good on the long side
  
• UPS Update - Take profits if long
  
• Bond Update -TLT long bouncing but need a few more days like this
  
• DeMark Screens - Daily, Weekly, Monthly upside/downside exhaustion signals within the S&P 1500 and Euro Stoxx 600
  

Here's a link to the Hedge Fund Telemetry market sentiment page with 40 charts of sentiment including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities updated each day.   

SPX bullish sentiment is at 25% up from 20%

SPY despite the move today hasn't changed the downside Countdown.  

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 35% up from 30%

QQQ has support at 155.76 and also has a downside Countdown very much in play

Dow Jones Industrials downside Countdown intact too

IWM Russell 2000 under performing relatively today.  

Trade Ideas:  Added long:  GLD, SLV.  Added short:  FB, DAL, MU, AXP.  Giving back some recent gains on the short side yet still up 70bps.  BBY is on my list to cover if it can't turn soon

FAANG bouncing off first support 3058 and still has a negative chart pattern

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 68% and a new recent high

US Dollar Index had a recent upside red 13 Countdown exhaustion yet seems to want to tag that Wave 3 target

Euro bullish sentiment is at 51% and needs to hold here or else things could get wild

Euro has a downside Wave 5 price objective at 1.20.  If this gets closer expect sentiment to drop to 25% at least

China and Hong Kong still trade poorly.  FXI has some work to do

Shanghai trades worse and has a downside red Countdown on day 7 of 13

Gold bullish sentiment is at 43% and at a new low for this move

Gold Futures had a downside red Countdown 13 yesterday and I pulled the trigger on a 2.5% sized long position.  The set up now vs back in December when I last went long is not as good since sentiment was very washed out at 13% vs 43% now.  

GLD back in December had downside exhaustion with the Futures.  Part of the thought for this trade is that the next wave up is an upward C wave and it's nearing the downside of a 4 month range.  

Silver bullish sentiment is at 32% - not fully washed out

SLV is also back to the lower end of the range near 15.  Worth a shot for it to hold  

DAL went on the Trade Ideas as a short today as it has made several lower highs and has a Wave 3 downside price objective of 44.48.  I also think higher fuel prices will start to get noticed as a negative for Airlines

FB gapping up after earnings that I expected would be good to get the stock going north.  I do expect this to fade in the coming days.  I would bet there were a lot of newbie shorts pressing the lows in March and earlier this week hoping for a further drop.  I might have been a little early today but it's a position I feel strong about as you read in my opening

INTC reports tonight and as I have said they look probably the best technically of all the semi's.  I have no interest in buying it ahead of numbers especially since they have been increasingly been supplying AAPL with chips vs QCOM

SMH Semiconductor ETF has been mashed down with the Taiwan Semi guidance cut.  Intel is the largest weight in this ETF so it will be moving tomorrow

MU Micron reported earnings and fell in March.  They sell commodity chips and there have been pricing pressure issues in the past couple months.  I added it to my shorts today.  If INTC bounces and takes this up I might make it a full 5% sized position

This is the weekly of SLB one that I am long in the Trade Ideas list.  I like the way this trades and am considering doubling up the size.  I'll let you know if I do.  

OIH Oil Services weekly has a similar chart with upside potential.  Notice the February low was higher than the 2017 low (both had downside red 13 exhaustion signal).  This has an upside Wave 3 price objective of 33.60

UPS reported good earnings and has moved higher today by 3.5%.  This was an ideas from February on the long side pre Trade Ideas page.  Take profits if you're in this.  

Bond bullish sentiment is at 19% and a new low for the move.  

TLT a new long idea is bouncing today and I want to see a few more days like this to get a price flip up (green 1 where it trades higher than 4 previous closes)

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